NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	4.9 [867]		MVP	Andre Iguodala (PHI): +17.9%
Philadelphia 76ers	110		Comeback	2.2 [592]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -21.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.18	-0.01	0.04	12	87%	0.18	3	-0.06	7	100%	0.03
Ty Lawson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.00	0.03	7	75%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	9	47%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	9	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	-0.02	0.06	17	57%	-0.02	2	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.05
Shelden Williams	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.13	-0.08	0.02	12	43%	-0.04	6	-0.18	4	100%	0.02

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.18	0.04	0.03	12	77%	0.20	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.02	7	83%	0.12	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.02	0.04	12	81%	0.15	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Jodie Meeks	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	55%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.03
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	10	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	13	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	7	36%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.7	28.2	15.6	25.2	2.4	28.4	130.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +33.8%

PHI +2.3%

DEN -9.2%

PHI +19.4%

PHI +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHI	NBA	DEN	PHI	NBA
this game	15.1	16.3	15.5	106.5	120.9	105.7
season	14.3	15.5		110.7	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.4	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.5	17.0	15.1	11.9	15.1
PHI	15.5	14.3	15.6	19.8	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Melvin Ely	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-15	19	4.0	15.4	-11.43	31.0	15.7	15.25
Shelden Williams	28	29	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.19	1	-12	13	15.8	14.7	1.08	17.2	15.8	1.40
Arron Afflalo	71	69	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-11	11	15.4	14.0	1.39	16.0	16.9	-0.87
Gary Forbes	32	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-10	9	12.8	16.2	-3.43	15.4	16.7	-1.31
Chris Andersen	30	28	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.04	-6	-5	-1	14.0	15.6	-1.62	13.4	17.5	-4.18
Ty Lawson	54	52	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.08	-5	-6	1	14.1	16.4	-2.36	16.9	15.4	1.47
J.R. Smith	63	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-7	3	13.9	17.4	-3.50	16.2	16.4	-0.17
Nene	60	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-2	-7	16.2	13.1	3.11	17.2	14.6	2.56
Chauncey Billups	65	64	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.02	-14	3	-17	16.2	12.5	3.72	16.2	16.4	-0.27
Carmelo Anthony	59	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	0.06	-21	10	-31	16.4	12.7	3.67	15.8	17.1	-1.30

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Iguodala	67	68	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.05	16	-5	21	16.2	16.3	-0.11	15.3	14.4	0.91
Elton Brand	50	51	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	-3	17	16.4	16.0	0.42	16.6	13.2	3.46
Evan Turner	55	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	0	11	16.3	16.2	0.14	15.1	15.0	0.15
Jodie Meeks	56	56	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	9	-7	16.4	15.9	0.50	14.4	16.1	-1.69
Thaddeus Young	61	63	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.05	8	3	5	16.6	15.6	0.92	14.3	16.7	-2.41
Lou Williams	45	47	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.04	6	5	1	17.0	15.5	1.43	14.4	15.8	-1.38
Jrue Holiday	64	65	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.40	-7	18	-25	16.0	16.9	-0.90	15.3	14.5	0.76
Marreese Speights	19	19	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.10	7	4	3	12.2	17.3	-5.18	15.9	14.9	1.04
Spencer Hawes	38	40	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.14	-2	13	-15	16.8	15.8	1.01	14.8	15.3	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.72,0.84,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.89,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 83, TOR 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
LAL 83, PHX 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.81,0.89,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.97,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%
DEN 96, NYK 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.4%