NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	107		Excitement	4.6 [939]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): +19.4%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	1.8 [609]		LVP	Kenyon Martin (DEN): -9.8%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0.14	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.02	0.06	-0.06	14	59%	0.18	3	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Andrew Bynum	0.11	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.03	0.02	11	65%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Kobe Bryant	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.04	-0.03	15	55%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	14	64%	0.15	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.14	-0.02	0.08	12	70%	0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Steve Blake	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	6	42%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Walton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	8	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.19	0.03	0.03	11	92%	0.22	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.01	0.03	9	71%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	10	64%	0.10	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	7	45%	0.07	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	38%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	7	36%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	0.06	24	45%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.4	27.6	19.4	27.4	3.7	30.3	135.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +34.2%

DEN -14.4%

LAL +19.1%

LAL +8.4%

LAL +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	18.9	14.4	15.5	123.0	112.8	105.7
season	15.9	14.3		108.8	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.8	17.9	19.0	23.8	18.9
DEN	13.5	16.4	14.6	12.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	53	53	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.09	13	-3	16	19.4	18.1	1.28	15.3	12.8	2.47
Shannon Brown	29	29	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.12	17	-7	24	18.3	19.2	-0.83	15.3	13.9	1.47
Pau Gasol	63	62	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	8	-6	18.8	19.1	-0.32	13.5	16.7	-3.24
Derek Fisher	49	48	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	6	-2	19.0	18.8	0.14	13.5	15.4	-1.88
Metta World Peace	48	49	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	7	-4	18.6	19.3	-0.65	13.6	15.4	-1.81
Steve Blake	48	47	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	11	-12	20.2	17.3	2.83	14.1	14.7	-0.63
Luke Walton	35	33	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	4	2	18.5	19.2	-0.74	16.2	13.2	2.94
Kobe Bryant	60	59	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.24	-2	12	-14	19.3	18.0	1.25	13.8	15.7	-1.94
Andrew Bynum	50	50	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.08	8	2	6	17.6	20.6	-2.95	15.3	13.1	2.17

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	64	66	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.20	3	-13	16	14.0	15.4	-1.39	19.0	18.6	0.43
Nene	62	63	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.26	3	-13	16	14.2	14.7	-0.52	19.1	18.3	0.78
Melvin Ely	15	15	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.06	-8	-2	-6	15.5	14.1	1.41	16.3	19.4	-3.18
Carmelo Anthony	66	68	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.26	2	-12	14	14.3	14.6	-0.30	18.7	19.6	-0.87
Kenyon Martin	43	42	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.02	-10	0	-10	14.1	14.6	-0.47	18.0	19.8	-1.83
Arron Afflalo	76	75	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.13	-7	-3	-4	14.2	15.5	-1.28	19.1	17.5	1.62
Ty Lawson	49	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-5	0	14.4	14.3	0.13	20.3	17.0	3.30
J.R. Smith	25	25	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.04	-13	3	-16	15.2	14.0	1.22	18.4	19.1	-0.64
Al Harrington	30	31	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.03	-15	5	-20	14.9	14.1	0.81	18.8	19.0	-0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.48,0.55,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.25,0.23,0.19,0.2,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 113, ORL 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.65,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.24,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
DAL 94, NJN 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.16,0.26,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
MEM 112, DET 84	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.58,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.23,0.21,0.08,0.1,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%