NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	107		Excitement	7.2 [393]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +29.4%
Denver Nuggets	112		Comeback	3.1 [504]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -10.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Russell Westbrook	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.09	-0.01	16	61%	0.22	4	-0.07	14	86%	0.02
Nick Collison	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	4	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.01	7	47%	0.09	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.01	0.00	10	73%	0.14	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Thabo Sefolosha	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jeff Green	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	12	46%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11	0.01	-0.07	0.04	18	48%	-0.07	1	-0.04	10	100%	0.05

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.21,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29	0.29	0.16	0.10	-0.04	25	55%	0.29	0	0.00	14	79%	0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	-0.00	7	69%	0.19	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Nene	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.01	0.03	8	76%	0.11	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.03
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	11	67%	0.09	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	64%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.00	6	44%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.07
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	9	35%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	6	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.6	28.3	16.5	28.5	2.6	33.0	134.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +31.8%

DEN +10.1%

DEN +3.5%

DEN +4.2%

DEN +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	15.6	15.5	115.1	121.7	105.7
season	15.0	14.3		108.8	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.6		106.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.9	16.0	14.5	15.8	15.5
DEN	14.7	16.7	14.3	16.9	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nenad Krstic	36	36	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.08	-2	-3	1	15.5	15.5	0.02	14.8	16.1	-1.34
Kevin Durant	79	79	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.29	4	-9	13	14.8	19.8	-5.03	15.5	16.2	-0.62
Russell Westbrook	70	69	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.20	1	-6	7	15.4	15.9	-0.53	15.5	15.9	-0.33
James Harden	33	31	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	2	-9	17.1	14.6	2.44	15.1	15.9	-0.79
Eric Maynor	23	23	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.15	-6	1	-7	15.9	15.4	0.53	15.9	15.5	0.33
Thabo Sefolosha	55	55	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.19	-5	0	-5	14.7	16.7	-2.02	15.6	15.7	-0.14
Jeff Green	59	60	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-1	-3	15.6	15.3	0.35	15.9	15.0	0.90
Serge Ibaka	55	53	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.22	-7	2	-9	16.1	14.6	1.54	15.6	15.6	0.01
Nick Collison	55	54	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.47	1	-6	7	15.7	15.2	0.47	16.3	14.7	1.64

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	74	75	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	-2	9	15.7	15.2	0.56	14.8	18.5	-3.70
J.R. Smith	44	43	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	3	-1	16.0	15.3	0.69	15.1	15.9	-0.74
Ty Lawson	32	34	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	3	-1	16.6	15.1	1.45	16.5	14.9	1.55
Al Harrington	39	41	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.19	4	1	3	15.2	16.0	-0.81	16.2	14.9	1.30
Arron Afflalo	71	72	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	4	-3	15.4	16.2	-0.80	15.6	15.3	0.30
Nene	66	67	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	5	-5	15.5	16.0	-0.58	15.1	16.5	-1.42
Kenyon Martin	47	47	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.07	10	-5	15	15.1	16.2	-1.09	15.9	15.1	0.81
Chauncey Billups	64	63	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	2	1	15.6	15.6	0.07	15.0	16.7	-1.70
Melvin Ely	12	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	7	-9	16.2	15.5	0.72	16.7	15.3	1.32
Gary Forbes	11	11	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	7	-9	16.0	15.6	0.43	18.4	15.1	3.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.62,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.6,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.94,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 109, LAL 113	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.44,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.27,0.35,0.25,0.21,0.34,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.85,0.88,0.98,0.96,1	93.6%
ATL 88, NJN 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.31,0.27,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.78,0.86,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.0%
BKN 109, CLE 119	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.27,0.36,0.5,0.48,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.54,0.81,0.85,0.94,1,1	92.8%