NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	93		Excitement	11.1 [23]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +32.7%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	11.8 [78]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -23.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.04	0.23	-0.01	9	55%	0.28	0	0.00	2	100%	0.05
Jamal Crawford	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.24,0.24	0.02	0.21	-0.00	15	59%	0.39	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.03
Josh Smith	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.15,-0.15,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.16	-0.07	0.22	-0.01	18	38%	0.25	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.07
Mike Bibby	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	-0.00	11	62%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Jason Collins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Powell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jordan Crawford	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.12	-0.14	0.03	0.02	24	37%	0.10	3	-0.22	4	75%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.12,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.08,-0.18,-0.22,-0.26,-0.26,-0.35,0,0,-0.04,0.12,0.22,0.33	0.33	-0.06	0.38	-0.01	30	48%	0.60	6	-0.27	11	91%	0.12
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	8	60%	0.12	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.06	-0.17	0.01	20	52%	0.10	6	-0.34	12	92%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.4	0.8	31.3	16.5	24.0	1.6	36.4	2.4	17.6	155.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	1.9	16.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +49.4%

MIA -27.5%

ATL +4.9%

ATL +17.6%

ATL +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	16.5	15.5	93.9	92.7	105.7
season	16.5	16.0		104.0	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.3	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ATL	14.1	18.3	16.0	16.3	15.7	16.1
MIA	18.9	14.4	16.0	18.8	12.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Crawford	59	57	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.33	14	-10	24	15.3	17.2	-1.89	17.3	15.4	1.96
Josh Smith	84	81	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.29	15	-11	26	15.7	18.1	-2.40	16.5	16.7	-0.17
Joe Johnson	84	82	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.44	9	-5	14	16.2	15.5	0.67	16.3	17.6	-1.23
Maurice Evans	63	63	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.67	-4	8	-12	15.9	16.4	-0.50	14.7	20.0	-5.30
Zaza Pachulia	42	42	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.01	5	-1	6	16.4	15.9	0.44	16.6	16.5	0.09
Jason Collins	26	25	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.04	4	0	4	15.6	16.3	-0.66	17.7	16.1	1.62
Mike Bibby	67	67	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.33	-9	13	-22	16.7	14.7	2.00	16.1	17.5	-1.43
Al Horford	40	37	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	4	-4	16.5	15.8	0.63	16.1	16.8	-0.63
Josh Powell	7	5	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.07	-4	8	-12	14.9	16.2	-1.34	20.6	16.3	4.30
Jordan Crawford	3	2	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.12	-2	6	-8	17.0	16.1	0.93	36.5	16.1	20.40
Damien Wilkins	20	19	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	-0.02	-8	12	-20	17.5	15.7	1.75	18.5	16.0	2.43

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	72	72	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.05	5	-9	14	17.1	14.9	2.14	16.7	14.4	2.33
Juwan Howard	17	16	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.12	-2	-2	0	17.0	16.4	0.58	17.6	15.8	1.74
Erick Dampier	8	9	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-5	6	19.0	16.3	2.70	13.4	16.4	-2.92
Joel Anthony	78	79	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-5	6	16.4	17.1	-0.66	16.9	13.0	3.89
Carlos Arroyo	14	16	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	1	-6	20.1	15.9	4.16	13.9	16.5	-2.58
Mario Chalmers	73	73	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.33	6	-10	16	15.7	19.0	-3.26	17.0	13.5	3.48
James Jones	35	38	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	1	-6	15.7	17.0	-1.36	15.0	16.8	-1.83
Eddie House	52	53	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.54	8	-12	20	15.7	17.5	-1.85	16.4	15.7	0.68
Mike Miller	18	19	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.04	-10	6	-16	17.6	16.3	1.34	13.0	16.8	-3.84
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	22	24	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	6	-16	19.1	15.7	3.39	14.7	16.6	-1.89
LeBron James	81	85	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.46	-5	1	-6	16.3	17.5	-1.12	15.9	17.2	-1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.34,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.46,0.37,0.45,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.72,0.9,0.79,0.57,0.09,0.46,0.31,0.28,0.34,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 105, DAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.36,0.45,0.34,0.37,0.43,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.57,0.67,0.68,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.69,0.54,0.43,0.17,0.46,0.25,0.16,0.22,0.42,0	88.9%
TOR 101, IND 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.41,0.53,0.53,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.23,0.26,0.46,0.32,0.45,0.23,0.02,0	88.4%
SEA 119, SAC 112	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.32,0.26,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.71,0.81,0.54,0.15,0.04,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.16,0.05,0	88.3%