NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	95		Excitement	7.0 [429]		MVP	Nick Young (WAS): +27.8%
Washington Wizards	98		Comeback	2.0 [787]		LVP	John Wall (WAS): -28.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ed Davis	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.05	-0.00	11	65%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.00	8	60%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Andrea Bargnani	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.03	0.03	0.03	21	52%	0.09	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.04
Jose Calderon	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02	0.10	-0.05	0.04	16	66%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	11	46%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sundiata Gaines	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	4	25%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	11	29%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Young	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.28	0.28	0.14	0.14	-0.00	19	63%	0.31	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.04
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.10	0.01	8	72%	0.21	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.05	0.00	5	100%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	6	69%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	7	71%	0.08	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Cartier Martin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	18	40%	-0.02	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.03
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	0.00	-0.00	8	12%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.26,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.28	-0.28	-0.18	-0.10	-0.00	14	29%	-0.10	5	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	25.5	15.6	23.5	2.5	36.0	129.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +35.2%

WAS +1.5%

WAS +21.5%

TOR -10.9%

WAS +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	15.2	15.4	15.5	100.0	105.4	105.7
season	15.1	15.1		104.7	100.9
opponent	15.2	15.5		108.7	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.7	16.8	17.0	12.6	15.2
WAS	13.0	16.0	15.7	17.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrea Bargnani	80	80	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.41	9	-12	21	14.6	18.2	-3.56	15.4	15.5	-0.11
Linas Kleiza	63	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-4	5	15.2	15.2	-0.03	14.8	16.8	-2.06
Sundiata Gaines	27	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.13	-2	-1	-1	15.3	15.2	0.13	15.7	15.3	0.42
Julian Wright	47	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.06	-8	5	-13	15.9	14.5	1.41	16.9	14.1	2.74
DeMar DeRozan	71	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-5	7	14.7	16.7	-2.02	14.4	18.4	-3.95
Ed Davis	52	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.36	-3	0	-3	15.8	14.5	1.30	16.8	13.7	3.05
Amir Johnson	59	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.07	-13	10	-23	15.8	14.2	1.53	15.3	15.6	-0.34
Jose Calderon	76	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.43	-1	-2	1	14.9	16.2	-1.26	15.2	16.6	-1.38

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Young	80	81	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.41	6	-3	9	15.6	14.2	1.50	15.0	16.1	-1.02
Andray Blatche	78	79	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.44	4	-1	5	15.0	17.6	-2.57	14.9	16.6	-1.64
Rashard Lewis	68	68	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.51	-2	5	-7	15.4	15.5	-0.05	14.6	16.7	-2.10
Al Thornton	58	61	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.12	8	-5	13	15.3	15.7	-0.48	15.3	15.0	0.36
John Wall	71	71	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.38	-3	6	-9	15.3	16.0	-0.73	15.2	15.2	0.04
Kirk Hinrich	35	38	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.03	5	-2	7	15.3	15.5	-0.20	15.5	15.0	0.50
JaVale McGee	47	47	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.23	-5	8	-13	15.9	14.9	1.00	15.9	14.5	1.41
Yi Jianlian	27	29	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	1	1	16.8	14.9	1.88	16.3	14.7	1.55
Cartier Martin	1	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	3	-3	0.0	15.6	-15.61	5.0	15.3	-10.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.62,0.48,0.63,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 83, DAL 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.52,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.65,0.71,0.58,0.7,0.59,0.83,0.77,0.72,0.85,0.96,1	93.1%
TOR 100, CLE 108	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.98,1	92.9%
GSW 88, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.57,0.63,0.53,0.71,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.94,0.99,1	92.8%