NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	99		Excitement	4.4 [978]		MVP	Taj Gibson (CHI): +8.2%
Indiana Pacers	86		Comeback	1.5 [666]		LVP	Roy Hibbert (IND): -12.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	6	69%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.01	0.03	21	62%	0.13	3	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Omer Asik	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	4	56%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
CJ Watson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	6	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02
Carlos Boozer	0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	19	42%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	6	44%	0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Kyle Korver	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	8	31%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kurt Thomas	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	10	65%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	7	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Hansbrough	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	52%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	6	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Danny Granger	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	23	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	16	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	8	12%	-0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	30.8	15.7	26.3	1.8	25.0	124.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +58.5%

IND -6.7%

IND -6.0%

CHI +5.9%

IND -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	16.0	15.1	15.5	106.5	93.5	105.7
season	15.7	14.7		106.5	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.9		104.5	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.5	15.0	14.2	19.9	16.0
IND	15.1	13.2	16.4	16.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	89	88	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.08	18	-5	23	15.9	18.0	-2.09	15.6	5.5	10.07
Derrick Rose	69	69	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	-1	15	15.6	17.2	-1.63	15.7	13.4	2.32
Taj Gibson	31	31	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.12	17	-4	21	15.2	16.4	-1.16	13.7	15.9	-2.14
Kurt Thomas	65	62	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	4	5	16.1	15.8	0.26	16.2	13.0	3.16
Carlos Boozer	44	46	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.09	5	8	-3	14.8	17.1	-2.33	15.0	15.3	-0.26
Kyle Korver	42	42	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	12	-11	17.0	15.2	1.74	14.5	15.6	-1.07
Keith Bogans	27	27	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	9	-5	14.6	16.6	-2.04	16.4	14.6	1.86
Ronnie Brewer	63	61	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.19	-2	15	-17	17.0	13.8	3.20	15.3	14.8	0.54
CJ Watson	24	23	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	14	-15	17.2	15.6	1.63	13.4	15.7	-2.32
Omer Asik	11	11	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	13	-13	17.4	15.8	1.55	8.4	16.0	-7.69

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	15	15	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-13	13	18.6	14.5	4.15	15.8	16.0	-0.24
Tyler Hansbrough	34	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-9	5	15.6	14.9	0.68	15.3	16.4	-1.11
T.J. Ford	27	26	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-9	5	13.7	15.7	-2.02	15.6	16.1	-0.53
Josh McRoberts	7	8	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	-7	1	18.0	14.9	3.11	14.0	16.2	-2.19
Danny Granger	73	72	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.10	-3	-10	7	14.4	17.8	-3.42	16.6	14.0	2.64
Roy Hibbert	42	43	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-8	3	16.4	14.1	2.26	15.8	16.2	-0.43
Paul George	50	50	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-12	11	14.8	15.5	-0.77	15.7	16.3	-0.61
Jeff Foster	50	50	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-5	-3	14.1	16.4	-2.26	16.2	15.8	0.43
Mike Dunleavy	64	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-3	-7	14.7	16.0	-1.25	16.1	15.9	0.20
Brandon Rush	33	35	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.07	-15	2	-17	15.3	15.0	0.32	16.3	15.8	0.46
Darren Collison	65	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.12	-9	-4	-5	15.7	13.7	2.02	16.1	15.6	0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.08,0.19,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 106, ATL 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.14,0.19,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
CLE 91, BKN 78	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
DAL 109, CLE 90	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.13,0.14,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%