NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	124		Excitement	7.5 [344]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +44.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	125		Comeback	1.0 [687]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -13.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0.26	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.26	0.21	0.07	0.03	19	67%	0.30	2	-0.05	20	85%	0.05
JJ Redick	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.10	0.11	0.00	11	75%	0.25	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.13	0.01	0.03	13	68%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ryan Anderson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.03	0.02	10	65%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Gilbert Arenas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Bass	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.02	8	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	12	37%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	9	29%	-0.14	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.45	0.45	0.26	0.23	0.04	17	84%	0.50	2	-0.05	9	89%	0.05
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.06	-0.00	22	56%	0.18	1	-0.02	13	77%	-0.04
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.06	0.00	4	112%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	0.00	10	67%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.02	10	55%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.01	7	53%	0.08	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	67%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	6	37%	-0.05	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.7	1.8	30.5	18.7	29.6	2.8	45.0	159.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +58.3%

OKC +10.5%

ORL -9.2%

ORL -13.3%

OKC +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	OKC	NBA	ORL	OKC	NBA
this game	15.6	15.0	15.5	133.3	131.6	105.7
season	15.2	15.0		106.3	108.8
opponent	15.6	16.2		105.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.9	17.4	16.3	14.2	15.6
OKC	13.4	16.9	15.0	15.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Anderson	44	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	0	-1	15.3	15.9	-0.67	15.0	15.0	0.04
Gilbert Arenas	40	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	2	-5	14.7	16.3	-1.66	14.2	15.6	-1.47
JJ Redick	61	62	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.58	13	-14	27	14.2	18.3	-4.15	15.5	14.1	1.43
Hedo Turkoglu	60	62	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-2	3	16.5	14.0	2.52	14.8	15.5	-0.71
Jameer Nelson	67	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	0	-1	16.4	13.5	2.89	14.8	15.6	-0.75
Brandon Bass	39	39	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.02	-16	15	-31	16.2	15.2	1.05	14.0	15.7	-1.73
Dwight Howard	81	83	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.49	1	-2	3	16.0	13.1	2.92	15.5	11.4	4.13
Jason Richardson	73	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.51	1	-2	3	15.3	16.7	-1.37	15.4	13.4	1.95

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Russell Westbrook	83	82	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.46	3	-2	5	14.7	17.1	-2.36	15.9	13.7	2.15
Kevin Durant	86	83	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	-3	7	14.6	19.1	-4.52	15.5	16.3	-0.76
Thabo Sefolosha	60	59	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.34	4	-3	7	14.5	15.9	-1.46	16.1	14.8	1.35
Nenad Krstic	42	41	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	-11	23	15.6	14.6	1.03	17.5	14.2	3.33
Jeff Green	70	70	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.40	-3	4	-7	15.5	13.8	1.71	16.5	13.1	3.37
Eric Maynor	32	31	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.14	1	0	1	15.4	14.8	0.58	14.3	16.3	-1.95
Serge Ibaka	51	51	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.30	-8	9	-17	15.1	14.9	0.25	14.4	17.1	-2.73
James Harden	37	35	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.24	-6	7	-13	15.1	15.0	0.10	14.4	16.4	-1.96
Nick Collison	14	13	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	3	-5	16.3	14.8	1.48	13.2	16.0	-2.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.82,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.76,0.69,0.75,0.84,0.91,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 84, POR 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.87,0.78,0.82,0.62,0.64,0.78,0.83,1	93.7%
DAL 87, CHA 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.82,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.72,0.69,0.93,0.89,0.98,1	93.5%
WAS 79, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.89,0.82,0.74,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.96,0.91,1,1	93.4%