NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	89		Excitement	10.6 [34]		MVP	Marcus Thornton (NOH): +19.6%
New Orleans Hornets	92		Comeback	3.9 [246]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -42.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.18	0.11	0.08	0.02	16	66%	0.27	1	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.10	0.05	-0.00	9	78%	0.19	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.09	0.10	-0.01	0.00	19	64%	0.17	3	-0.08	7	43%	-0.37
Gilbert Arenas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	5	40%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	10	35%	-0.02	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
JJ Redick	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13	-0.10	-0.09	-0.05	11	23%	-0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.10	-0.14	-0.01	13	23%	-0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.43	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.32,-0.32,-0.43,-0.43	-0.17	-0.26	-0.00	9	11%	-0.34	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.2	0.20	0.00	0.18	-0.01	18	52%	0.35	3	-0.15	6	100%	0.08
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	12	67%	0.18	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	0.00	11	60%	0.15	3	-0.09	8	25%	-0.12
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	6	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	-0.00	12	44%	-0.06	1	-0.07	3	67%	-0.02
David West	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.07	-0.26	-0.01	18	34%	-0.32	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	25.5	15.8	29.2	2.4	35.3	2.5	17.1	152.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	1.9	16.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +16.5%

NOH +21.3%

ORL -16.7%

NOH +19.9%

NOH +9.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NOH	NBA	ORL	NOH	NBA
this game	14.8	17.8	15.5	91.8	93.9	105.7
season	15.2	16.2		106.3	104.6
opponent	15.9	16.2		104.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	16.0	14.0	15.9	13.5	15.0	14.8
NOH	19.2	16.5	16.1	20.1	16.5	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Anderson	37	37	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.11	5	-8	13	14.9	14.8	0.16	18.0	17.6	0.35
JJ Redick	63	66	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.41	8	-11	19	14.1	16.2	-2.09	17.4	18.5	-1.11
Gilbert Arenas	30	30	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.15	-4	1	-5	14.9	14.8	0.03	16.0	18.5	-2.53
Jameer Nelson	67	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.28	-1	-2	1	14.8	14.9	-0.03	18.5	16.0	2.53
Jason Richardson	78	77	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-3	3	15.1	13.8	1.25	18.2	16.0	2.29
Hedo Turkoglu	67	69	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	3	-9	14.7	15.2	-0.47	15.8	22.3	-6.47
Dwight Howard	87	88	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.40	-1	-2	1	15.0	13.3	1.72	18.0	15.9	2.07
Brandon Bass	56	55	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.18	-16	13	-29	15.2	14.4	0.75	19.4	15.6	3.79

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Thornton	62	60	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.45	5	-2	7	16.9	19.2	-2.28	14.2	15.9	-1.65
Trevor Ariza	84	82	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.40	6	-3	9	17.8	17.6	0.13	15.0	14.1	0.84
Emeka Okafor	85	84	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-2	7	17.8	17.2	0.69	15.0	14.0	0.98
Chris Paul	74	74	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.32	2	1	1	17.9	17.5	0.39	14.9	14.7	0.25
Willie Green	31	31	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.27	1	2	-1	18.4	17.5	0.88	16.2	14.2	1.98
Quincy Pondexter	33	32	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	1	1	15.5	18.9	-3.38	14.7	14.9	-0.24
David West	64	65	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	2	-1	19.2	15.1	4.04	15.0	14.4	0.61
Marco Belinelli	2	2	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	3	-3	25.5	17.6	7.91	15.0	14.8	0.16
Jarrett Jack	27	27	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	3	-3	18.1	17.6	0.54	14.5	15.0	-0.45
Jason Smith	15	15	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	6	-9	16.6	18.0	-1.36	13.6	15.1	-1.47
Aaron Gray	13	13	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	7	-11	17.2	17.8	-0.69	14.0	15.0	-0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.69,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.63,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.86,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.67,0.69,0.85,0.93,0.99,0.54,0.53,0.36,0.45,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 111, CHA 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.63,0.7,0.81,0.67,0.69,0.84,0.91,0.72,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.67,0.69,1	89.9%
PHI 95, UTA 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.71,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.81,0.89,0.78,0.84,0.54,0.38,0.54,0.45,0.69,1	89.8%
POR 84, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.67,0.76,0.93,0.98,1,1	89.3%