NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	104		Excitement	9.8 [65]		MVP	Jamal Crawford (ATL): +53.3%
Toronto Raptors	101		Comeback	9.1 [164]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): -29.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.53	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.3,0.53	0.27	0.26	-0.00	23	67%	0.53	0	0.00	8	100%	0.16
Mike Bibby	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.39	-0.04	0.43	-0.00	8	44%	0.47	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.13	0.01	7	71%	0.21	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Josh Powell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Zaza Pachulia	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Damien Wilkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.05
Joe Johnson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.02,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06	0.00	-0.03	0.03	20	55%	0.08	5	-0.14	7	71%	-0.02
Josh Smith	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2	-0.13	-0.08	-0.00	15	26%	-0.18	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.38	0.38	0.08	0.30	0.00	4	100%	0.45	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.04
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.01	16	74%	0.37	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.28,0.26	0.26	0.04	0.20	-0.03	22	57%	0.43	4	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	4	67%	0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Joey Dorsey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.24	-0.24	-0.01	-0.24	-0.00	11	48%	-0.22	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.12	-0.18	0.00	11	39%	-0.04	5	-0.25	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	2.3	29.6	16.6	25.0	2.8	38.2	139.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR -16.3%

ATL +31.0%

ATL +25.8%

ATL +13.1%

TOR -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	16.9	14.1	15.5	111.8	108.6	105.7
season	16.5	15.1		104.0	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		111.2	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.0	16.5	19.0	16.2	16.9
TOR	14.0	13.5	13.1	15.8	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	68	68	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.43	6	-3	9	17.7	14.6	3.07	14.7	12.4	2.31
Josh Smith	79	80	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.47	2	1	1	17.1	15.9	1.21	14.2	13.5	0.73
Al Horford	70	69	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	-1	5	17.2	16.0	1.23	14.8	11.9	2.92
Damien Wilkins	25	23	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.31	3	0	3	13.7	18.1	-4.38	12.8	14.5	-1.73
Mike Bibby	66	67	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.14	6	-3	9	17.6	15.1	2.44	14.4	13.2	1.19
Maurice Evans	40	39	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.27	-1	4	-5	16.7	17.0	-0.23	14.5	13.8	0.74
Jamal Crawford	66	66	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	1	1	16.5	17.8	-1.26	13.9	14.6	-0.77
Zaza Pachulia	33	33	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	2	-1	17.1	16.8	0.32	13.0	14.7	-1.64
Josh Powell	3	3	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.02	-1	4	-5	5.3	17.3	-11.93	10.0	14.2	-4.22
Jeff Teague	15	17	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.01	-7	10	-17	16.8	16.9	-0.10	11.2	14.7	-3.56

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed Davis	33	31	0.29	-0.79	1.08	0.20	3	-6	9	12.6	14.9	-2.25	15.9	17.4	-1.47
Linas Kleiza	52	53	0.24	-0.74	0.99	0.04	7	-10	17	14.4	13.6	0.81	17.0	16.7	0.23
Jerryd Bayless	34	34	0.23	-0.73	0.95	0.23	0	-3	3	12.8	14.8	-2.08	14.9	18.1	-3.20
Joey Dorsey	8	8	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.01	1	-4	5	13.7	14.1	-0.37	15.6	17.0	-1.38
Leandro Barbosa	60	60	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.37	-3	0	-3	13.5	15.1	-1.56	16.3	18.0	-1.69
Amir Johnson	68	67	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.52	-2	-1	-1	14.7	12.5	2.14	17.9	14.2	3.68
Jose Calderon	59	59	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.57	-5	2	-7	14.8	12.8	2.08	18.1	14.9	3.20
DeMar DeRozan	76	77	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.48	-9	6	-15	14.2	13.4	0.83	16.7	17.6	-0.90
Andrea Bargnani	75	76	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.58	-7	4	-11	14.3	13.3	1.00	17.1	16.1	1.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.74,0.6,0.67,0.45,0.72,0.84,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 98, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.52,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.52,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.79,0.77,0.42,0	91.9%
UTA 88, GSW 87	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.68,0.73,0	91.5%
IND 92, LAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.31,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.78,0.66,0.6,0.68,0.72,0.85,0.42,0	91.5%