NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	82		Excitement	5.8 [665]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +23.9%
Chicago Bulls	95		Comeback	4.7 [652]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -15.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Wilcox	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.01	10	54%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.02
Rodney Stuckey	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	9	61%	0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.07	0.00	10	64%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Ben Wallace	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	17	42%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	0.01	-0.04	10	24%	-0.04	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Greg Monroe	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	7	43%	-0.03	3	-0.09	9	67%	-0.03
Richard Hamilton	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	5	17%	-0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.08	0.15	-0.01	20	59%	0.31	3	-0.07	9	100%	0.06
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.04	0.00	17	71%	0.22	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.02	0.04	9	55%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Omer Asik	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	12	53%	0.09	3	-0.11	8	87%	0.02
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	10	36%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.7	29.7	15.7	22.6	2.5	32.3	129.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +23.9%

CHI +19.5%

DET -8.1%

CHI +16.7%

DET -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CHI	NBA	DET	CHI	NBA
this game	16.5	15.3	15.5	90.1	105.6	105.7
season	16.7	15.7		106.4	106.5
opponent	15.9	15.2		99.2	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.6	16.5	18.0	17.3	16.5
CHI	14.2	16.2	14.8	16.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	64	64	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.04	-1	-12	11	15.6	18.6	-3.00	15.7	14.3	1.45
Ben Wallace	4	4	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-12	11	15.5	16.6	-1.06	15.7	15.3	0.47
Richard Hamilton	38	38	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-15	17	18.1	15.4	2.68	16.6	14.3	2.30
Chris Wilcox	41	40	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.28	3	-16	19	17.5	15.7	1.86	15.0	15.6	-0.59
Greg Monroe	81	80	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	-6	-1	16.6	15.9	0.69	15.2	15.7	-0.45
Charlie Villanueva	32	33	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	-1	-11	15.7	16.9	-1.23	14.9	15.5	-0.57
Tracy McGrady	61	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	-7	1	16.4	16.7	-0.32	15.0	15.9	-0.87
Austin Daye	45	44	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.11	-10	-3	-7	17.1	15.9	1.18	15.7	14.9	0.88
Ben Gordon	53	52	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.00	-15	2	-17	15.4	18.1	-2.68	14.3	16.6	-2.30
Rodney Stuckey	36	36	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.03	-18	5	-23	17.0	16.2	0.85	15.2	15.3	-0.08

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	58	58	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.08	24	-11	35	14.1	17.5	-3.37	16.8	15.9	0.91
Derrick Rose	82	83	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.11	15	-2	17	15.0	18.7	-3.79	16.5	17.0	-0.53
Luol Deng	82	83	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.16	13	0	13	15.4	14.5	0.88	16.5	16.2	0.29
Ronnie Brewer	59	61	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.17	6	7	-1	15.0	15.9	-0.87	16.4	16.7	-0.32
Taj Gibson	46	47	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.18	3	10	-7	16.2	14.3	1.92	17.0	16.0	1.09
Keith Bogans	31	30	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.05	7	6	1	15.9	15.0	0.87	16.7	16.4	0.32
Carlos Boozer	67	69	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.07	6	7	-1	15.4	15.0	0.34	15.9	18.6	-2.74
Kyle Korver	8	8	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	13	-13	14.5	15.4	-0.88	16.2	16.5	-0.29
CJ Watson	8	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	15	-17	18.7	15.0	3.79	17.0	16.5	0.53
Omer Asik	9	8	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.05	-7	20	-27	17.6	15.0	2.51	16.7	16.5	0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.38,0.22,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.56,0.74,0.7,0.79,0.67,0.81,0.92,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 93, CHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.39,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.44,0.6,0.68,0.78,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.95,1,0.98,1	93.5%
HOU 96, MIL 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.18,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.95,1,1,1	93.0%
MIN 102, PHX 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.29,0.41,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.87,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	92.7%