NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	96		Excitement	4.9 [870]		MVP	David West (NOH): +14.3%
Denver Nuggets	87		Comeback	1.1 [471]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): -15.6%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David West	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.05	0.07	-0.02	15	58%	0.18	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Jarrett Jack	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.01	0.06	-0.03	7	62%	0.16	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.03
Jason Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	9	60%	0.07	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	13	62%	0.10	4	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
Marco Belinelli	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Willie Green	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.02	10	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Thornton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	9	45%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Gray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.01	0.03	13	65%	0.11	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.00	3	100%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Melvin Ely	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	8	55%	0.03	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.04
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.03	-0.03	9	37%	-0.00	2	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	27%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	11	31%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	12	39%	-0.10	3	-0.05	9	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.8	31.2	15.6	28.6	2.4	27.5	135.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +34.5%

NOH +16.0%

NOH +13.5%

DEN -13.1%

DEN -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DEN	NBA	NOH	DEN	NBA
this game	17.7	14.8	15.5	107.9	98.9	105.7
season	16.2	14.3		104.6	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.9		106.1	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	18.4	15.9	15.5	21.8	17.7
DEN	15.0	15.4	14.0	14.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Emeka Okafor	52	53	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.11	14	-5	19	17.3	18.4	-1.06	14.9	14.7	0.18
David West	73	74	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.18	11	-2	13	18.2	15.6	2.64	14.4	17.1	-2.71
Chris Paul	64	65	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.20	10	-1	11	17.5	18.2	-0.65	14.3	16.1	-1.75
Marco Belinelli	45	46	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.17	7	2	5	17.4	18.1	-0.67	15.7	13.9	1.80
Jarrett Jack	39	38	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.09	5	4	1	19.9	16.0	3.86	15.0	14.6	0.41
Jason Smith	21	20	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	5	-1	15.0	18.6	-3.51	15.2	14.7	0.52
Willie Green	48	45	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.16	-2	11	-13	17.2	18.3	-1.13	14.8	14.8	0.01
Aaron Gray	10	9	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	4	1	16.6	17.9	-1.27	16.2	14.6	1.59
Trevor Ariza	58	59	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.18	-4	13	-17	18.1	17.1	0.97	15.4	13.7	1.70
Marcus Thornton	9	8	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	5	-1	13.7	18.2	-4.52	14.2	14.8	-0.60
Quincy Pondexter	26	23	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.16	-9	18	-27	19.3	17.1	2.17	13.0	15.4	-2.37

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Forbes	20	20	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.12	6	-15	21	15.0	14.7	0.33	18.8	17.4	1.44
Al Harrington	56	58	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.26	9	-18	27	13.9	16.3	-2.33	18.1	17.1	0.92
Anthony Carter	30	29	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-12	15	15.2	14.6	0.56	18.8	17.2	1.58
Melvin Ely	17	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	-3	-3	15.8	14.6	1.20	17.4	17.8	-0.36
Shelden Williams	29	29	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.02	-7	-2	-5	15.7	14.4	1.33	16.6	18.3	-1.75
Carmelo Anthony	60	60	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.15	-6	-3	-3	15.1	14.1	1.06	18.3	16.5	1.85
Arron Afflalo	47	48	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.00	-12	3	-15	15.0	14.6	0.35	16.4	19.3	-2.85
J.R. Smith	58	59	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-3	-3	14.6	15.2	-0.61	18.4	16.5	1.91
Nene	54	53	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.15	-13	4	-17	14.7	14.9	-0.19	16.8	19.1	-2.32
Chauncey Billups	69	71	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.16	-13	4	-17	14.5	16.0	-1.54	17.8	17.4	0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.25,0.07,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 94, CHA 89	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.01,0,0	94.8%
WAS 101, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.2,0.24,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.6%
DET 80, MIA 72	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.01,0.05,0	94.5%