NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	91		Excitement	7.6 [321]		MVP	Gary Neal (SAS): +25.4%
San Antonio Spurs	94		Comeback	2.1 [1112]		LVP	Darko Milicic (MIN): -14.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Tolliver	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.01	8	56%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	12	67%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Martell Webster	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Pekovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	62%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Michael Beasley	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.03,-0.07,-0.07	0.03	-0.09	0.00	15	53%	0.03	1	-0.10	4	75%	-0.02
Jonny Flynn	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.00	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	10	36%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Wesley Johnson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	13	35%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	16	32%	-0.08	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.33,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.10	0.15	0.00	5	100%	0.33	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.06	0.00	5	60%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	7	69%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	48%	0.04	2	-0.05	7	71%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	-0.02	16	55%	0.09	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	10	40%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	12	54%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	11	38%	-0.01	2	-0.07	7	100%	0.05
DeJuan Blair	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	29.1	15.3	25.5	1.7	31.5	129.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.9%

SAS +23.9%

MIN -4.0%

MIN -8.1%

SAS +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAS	NBA	MIN	SAS	NBA
this game	14.5	16.3	15.5	96.8	101.1	105.7
season	14.3	15.5		102.7	109.3
opponent	15.2	15.1		103.6	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.0	16.1	14.8	14.2	14.5
SAS	14.7	13.2	18.8	19.2	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Beasley	25	25	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.09	8	-11	19	13.1	15.0	-1.95	15.0	16.8	-1.83
Nikola Pekovic	21	21	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	1	-5	14.0	14.6	-0.60	14.0	17.0	-3.03
Luke Ridnour	60	60	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.32	8	-11	19	14.6	14.3	0.39	17.5	14.2	3.33
Corey Brewer	61	60	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.32	6	-9	15	14.4	14.7	-0.29	16.8	15.4	1.36
Darko Milicic	62	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.35	3	-6	9	14.4	14.7	-0.22	17.0	15.0	1.98
Wesley Johnson	52	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.07	-7	4	-11	15.3	13.5	1.83	17.0	15.5	1.51
Anthony Tolliver	39	38	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.10	-6	3	-9	14.4	14.6	-0.22	15.9	16.6	-0.73
Kevin Love	66	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-4	5	14.8	13.8	0.98	16.7	15.4	1.26
Jonny Flynn	34	33	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	8	-19	14.3	14.6	-0.39	14.2	17.5	-3.33
Martell Webster	54	54	-0.81	0.31	-1.11	-0.37	-15	12	-27	14.6	14.3	0.32	16.1	16.6	-0.54

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	49	48	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.33	13	-10	23	16.0	16.7	-0.68	14.9	14.2	0.70
Manu Ginobili	67	69	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.33	9	-6	15	16.4	16.0	0.42	14.6	14.2	0.42
Gary Neal	40	40	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	-4	11	15.3	17.1	-1.76	14.5	14.5	-0.06
Richard Jefferson	66	67	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	4	-5	17.0	14.6	2.36	14.7	14.0	0.72
Matt Bonner	48	48	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.01	9	-6	15	15.5	17.1	-1.61	14.6	14.5	0.11
George Hill	56	54	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.32	-3	6	-9	16.5	16.0	0.50	13.9	15.4	-1.55
Tony Parker	51	52	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	6	-9	15.5	17.3	-1.75	14.8	14.1	0.66
Tim Duncan	63	66	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.26	-9	12	-21	17.1	14.5	2.61	14.3	14.9	-0.60
DeJuan Blair	25	26	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.15	-7	10	-17	17.0	16.1	0.90	14.2	14.6	-0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.43,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.7,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.86,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 93, MIN 99	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	92.5%
PHI 90, IND 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.6,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.8,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.84,1,1	92.4%
DAL 89, SAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.99,1	92.3%