NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	105		Excitement	7.8 [275]		MVP	Tony Allen (MEM): +35.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	110		Comeback	2.0 [461]		LVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): -12.5%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Russell Westbrook	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.13,0.13,0.21	0.10	0.10	-0.01	20	57%	0.25	1	-0.04	9	78%	0.02
James Harden	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.06	0.00	7	100%	0.26	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.08	-0.00	6	67%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Maynor	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Jeff Green	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.04	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	5	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.12	-0.03	-0.11	-0.02	24	53%	0.08	6	-0.20	5	100%	0.03

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.27,0.35	0.35	0.09	0.26	-0.01	13	61%	0.40	1	-0.05	5	100%	0.07
Zach Randolph	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.22	0.22	0.13	0.10	0.01	20	62%	0.25	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.05
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	18	67%	0.20	4	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	0.00	10	39%	0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	8	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.06
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	1	25%	-0.00	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	0.01	-0.02	11	37%	-0.01	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.5	25.6	15.7	30.3	2.4	36.5	136.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +8.7%

MEM +4.0%

MEM +34.0%

MEM +2.3%

MEM +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MEM	NBA	OKC	MEM	NBA
this game	13.2	16.0	15.5	107.1	111.1	105.7
season	15.0	15.5		108.8	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.6		103.7	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	11.7	13.4	14.8	13.0	13.2
MEM	16.4	16.1	15.2	16.3	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Maynor	20	22	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.11	6	-11	17	14.0	13.0	1.05	14.5	16.4	-1.94
James Harden	49	50	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.20	7	-12	19	12.4	14.0	-1.61	14.9	17.2	-2.28
Serge Ibaka	49	52	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.40	9	-14	23	13.0	13.4	-0.47	16.6	15.4	1.15
Nick Collison	46	47	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-2	-1	13.7	12.7	0.99	15.3	16.7	-1.40
Jeff Green	85	85	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.33	1	-6	7	13.2	13.2	0.07	16.6	12.6	4.01
Thabo Sefolosha	33	32	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.10	-15	10	-25	14.4	12.6	1.82	16.2	15.9	0.26
Nenad Krstic	50	49	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.15	-7	2	-9	13.1	13.3	-0.23	16.3	15.7	0.63
Russell Westbrook	78	77	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.25	-11	6	-17	13.0	14.0	-1.05	16.4	14.5	1.94
Kevin Durant	80	81	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.29	-12	7	-19	13.1	13.7	-0.55	15.9	16.4	-0.46

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marc Gasol	76	77	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.32	14	-9	23	16.0	16.0	-0.04	13.1	13.7	-0.58
Mike Conley	87	86	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.33	8	-3	11	16.4	13.4	2.95	13.3	12.8	0.43
Rudy Gay	89	88	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.30	4	1	3	16.2	13.9	2.35	13.1	14.4	-1.32
Tony Allen	64	64	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.33	0	5	-5	16.7	14.8	1.92	13.5	12.7	0.78
Zach Randolph	80	80	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.41	-3	8	-11	17.2	10.9	6.33	13.4	12.3	1.08
Sam Young	26	25	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.07	1	4	-3	14.6	16.5	-1.89	12.6	13.4	-0.88
Greivis Vasquez	31	31	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	3	-1	14.1	16.9	-2.79	13.4	13.1	0.30
Darrell Arthur	42	39	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.03	-1	6	-7	13.7	17.7	-3.99	13.1	13.3	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.42,0.47,0.76,0.67,0.69,0.81,0.76,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 83, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.47,0.59,0.76,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.95,1	91.8%
OKC 89, NOP 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.9,0.89,0.98,1,1	91.6%
IND 107, WAS 112	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.37,0.32,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.74,0.77,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.52,0.42,0.64,0.71,0.61,0.75,0.71,0.85,0.92,1	91.5%