NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	89		Excitement	5.7 [706]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +24.8%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	1.9 [1000]		LVP	Carlos Arroyo (MIA): -19.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyon Dooling	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.01	8	67%	0.10	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.04
Jon Brockman	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Douglas-Roberts	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	6	43%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	6	41%	0.00	1	0.00	10	70%	-0.02
Andrew Bogut	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	13	52%	0.05	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.04
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	7	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	18	45%	-0.03	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Earl Boykins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	8	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.18	0.13	0.06	19	64%	0.29	2	-0.04	15	87%	0.04
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.01	15	61%	0.18	2	-0.05	11	82%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.03	-0.02	13	54%	0.12	0	0.00	9	78%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.04	-0.02	2	80%	0.07	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	0.04	9	47%	-0.05	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	0.01	7	14%	-0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.3	35.5	15.7	28.9	1.7	35.2	140.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +11.3%

MIA +28.6%

MIA +25.2%

MIL -20.1%

MIA +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	16.3	15.5	98.9	112.2	105.7
season	16.2	16.0		100.1	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.4		102.3	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.4	14.4	15.1	16.8	15.7
MIA	16.3	17.6	16.2	15.2	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Brockman	31	32	0.37	-0.87	1.23	-0.19	19	-31	50	14.4	16.3	-1.90	16.7	16.1	0.65
Keyon Dooling	63	63	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-9	6	15.9	15.1	0.85	15.8	17.5	-1.69
Chris Douglas-Roberts	38	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.35	8	-20	28	14.2	16.7	-2.47	17.1	15.8	1.24
Corey Maggette	33	32	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	1	-14	16.5	15.2	1.24	16.1	16.5	-0.37
Luc Mbah a Moute	80	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-7	2	15.5	16.9	-1.39	16.1	18.1	-1.99
John Salmons	74	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	1	-14	15.9	14.5	1.42	16.2	16.7	-0.51
Earl Boykins	27	27	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	-3	-6	15.1	15.9	-0.85	17.5	15.8	1.69
Andrew Bogut	61	61	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.13	-23	11	-34	16.4	14.1	2.26	16.5	16.1	0.39
Ersan Ilyasova	43	43	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	0.03	-21	9	-30	16.0	15.3	0.73	16.0	16.7	-0.73

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Dampier	36	36	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.07	19	-7	26	16.3	16.4	-0.05	16.6	15.0	1.57
James Jones	28	28	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	3	6	17.2	16.0	1.23	16.0	15.5	0.43
Juwan Howard	22	19	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.18	7	5	2	16.2	16.4	-0.20	13.7	16.2	-2.45
Mario Chalmers	37	37	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.16	5	7	-2	17.4	15.6	1.73	16.2	15.3	0.89
Dwyane Wade	65	66	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.01	8	4	4	16.4	16.2	0.24	16.0	14.9	1.08
Carlos Arroyo	53	53	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.01	7	5	2	15.6	17.4	-1.73	15.3	16.2	-0.89
LeBron James	70	69	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.10	10	2	8	15.9	17.9	-2.01	15.5	16.2	-0.75
Chris Bosh	68	71	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	7	-2	16.4	16.2	0.20	16.2	13.7	2.45
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	35	35	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.07	4	8	-4	16.1	16.5	-0.31	15.9	15.5	0.45
Mike Miller	17	17	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.08	-3	15	-18	16.5	16.3	0.24	14.8	15.9	-1.11
Joel Anthony	19	19	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.15	-11	23	-34	16.7	16.2	0.51	13.4	16.3	-2.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 83, OKC 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.81,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.9%
MIL 112, PHX 117	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.44,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.74,0.7,0.8,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,1	93.7%
ATL 88, TOR 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.66,0.82,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.81,0.78,0.9,0.96,0.9,0.92,1	93.6%