NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	77		Excitement	3.4 [1159]		MVP	Nene (DEN): +12.2%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	1.1 [1169]		LVP	Andre Miller (POR): -10.2%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Fernandez	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.01	7	69%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	11	58%	0.09	2	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	17	53%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Armon Johnson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.08	0.00	-0.08	7	29%	-0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	0.00	0.03	3	83%	-0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	9	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	32%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	11	39%	-0.04	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	7	85%	0.13	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.06	-0.03	12	54%	0.13	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.02	11	75%	0.14	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.01	5	100%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	15	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Renaldo Balkman	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	57%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.11	0.00	-0.08	10	31%	-0.01	2	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.14	-0.01	-0.07	7	14%	-0.04	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.8	26.3	16.4	26.5	2.5	30.2	127.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +36.6%

DEN +4.9%

DEN +4.4%

DEN +3.2%

DEN +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	16.7	15.7	15.5	86.5	106.7	105.7
season	16.5	14.3		106.7	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.7		106.1	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	18.8	15.3	20.7	12.9	16.7
DEN	15.5	18.3	13.6	15.3	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Marks	38	37	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.08	3	-21	24	14.8	18.1	-3.33	14.9	16.2	-1.32
Luke Babbitt	15	15	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-21	24	12.3	17.6	-5.25	15.0	15.8	-0.80
Armon Johnson	25	26	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-20	22	12.9	18.2	-5.31	15.3	15.8	-0.50
Patty Mills	30	32	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.15	4	-22	26	13.8	18.2	-4.32	17.3	14.7	2.58
Rudy Fernandez	39	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-9	0	14.8	18.2	-3.43	15.8	15.5	0.28
Wesley Matthews	57	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.15	-16	-2	-14	18.4	13.7	4.60	15.1	16.6	-1.45
Andre Miller	44	42	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.10	-19	1	-20	19.9	13.6	6.31	14.9	16.3	-1.44
LaMarcus Aldridge	65	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.07	-18	0	-18	18.0	13.3	4.66	15.9	15.0	0.84
Nicolas Batum	70	70	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.06	-19	1	-20	17.0	15.6	1.42	15.7	15.6	0.04
Dante Cunningham	62	61	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.08	-21	3	-24	17.6	14.6	3.02	16.2	14.4	1.85

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	53	54	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.13	23	-5	28	14.9	16.7	-1.83	18.5	13.9	4.63
J.R. Smith	66	68	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.22	25	-7	32	15.2	16.9	-1.63	17.5	14.0	3.47
Nene	46	48	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.04	18	0	18	15.3	16.1	-0.83	18.5	14.6	3.96
Arron Afflalo	74	75	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.01	15	3	12	15.1	18.6	-3.53	17.1	14.5	2.61
Kenyon Martin	28	27	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.06	13	5	8	15.1	15.9	-0.81	21.9	14.4	7.51
Chris Andersen	50	50	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.14	11	7	4	15.8	15.5	0.36	15.5	18.2	-2.64
Gary Forbes	43	41	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	19	-20	16.4	15.0	1.37	13.9	19.1	-5.14
Shelden Williams	19	19	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	18	-18	18.5	14.9	3.64	15.2	17.1	-1.89
Melvin Ely	13	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	23	-28	16.0	15.6	0.39	11.9	17.4	-5.52
Renaldo Balkman	9	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	22	-26	17.4	15.5	1.98	12.2	17.1	-4.89
Ty Lawson	44	43	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.12	-5	23	-28	16.4	15.0	1.43	13.9	19.3	-5.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.72,0.83,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 95, LAC 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.73,0.65,0.77,0.8,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
UTA 74, NJN 87	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.4%
DEN 82, POR 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%