NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	84		Excitement	7.3 [367]		MVP	Earl Boykins (MIL): +14.5%
Sacramento Kings	79		Comeback	4.4 [318]		LVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): -33.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14	0.01	0.12	-0.01	17	56%	0.23	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.03
Larry Sanders	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.04	0.03	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	12	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.03	0.00	14	47%	0.05	4	-0.10	4	25%	-0.04
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Douglas-Roberts	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	8	29%	-0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
John Salmons	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.07	0.00	14	37%	-0.09	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.00	5	90%	0.19	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	0.01	11	65%	0.11	4	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.02	-0.03	10	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darnell Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	45%	0.04	2	-0.07	5	60%	-0.02
Pooh Jeter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.09	0.02	9	62%	0.05	4	-0.16	3	100%	0.01
Carl Landry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	10	41%	-0.09	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Donte Greene	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	-0.00	13	33%	-0.15	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.04	0.00	4	25%	-0.02	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.24,-0.28,-0.34	-0.34	-0.22	-0.13	-0.01	13	15%	-0.22	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.5	29.6	13.8	22.3	2.4	31.4	127.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +33.8%

SAC -0.5%

SAC -31.0%

MIL +46.4%

MIL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	16.2	13.9	15.5	88.4	82.3	105.7
season	16.2	14.9		100.1	102.1
opponent	14.9	15.4		107.7	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.1	16.8	17.4	17.2	16.2
SAC	12.6	12.7	14.7	16.3	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luc Mbah a Moute	28	28	0.92	-0.42	1.33	0.48	15	-10	25	14.6	16.9	-2.32	14.0	13.9	0.15
Keyon Dooling	82	84	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.41	12	-7	19	16.5	14.6	1.88	14.2	12.3	1.82
Earl Boykins	57	58	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.26	14	-9	23	15.9	16.8	-0.96	14.4	13.3	1.10
Ersan Ilyasova	41	41	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.61	-3	8	-11	16.1	16.3	-0.17	14.4	13.6	0.85
Andrew Bogut	74	74	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.43	-2	7	-9	17.1	13.1	3.98	14.4	12.3	2.15
Jon Brockman	17	18	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.10	11	-6	17	14.5	16.6	-2.16	12.3	14.3	-2.03
Larry Sanders	43	44	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.22	0	5	-5	17.3	15.3	1.98	13.9	13.9	0.01
John Salmons	67	65	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.05	-9	14	-23	15.8	17.4	-1.63	13.3	15.2	-1.87
Chris Douglas-Roberts	66	68	-0.43	0.93	-1.35	-0.04	-13	18	-31	16.3	16.2	0.05	13.4	15.2	-1.77

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darnell Jackson	35	33	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.12	-1	-4	3	12.9	14.5	-1.64	15.6	16.6	-0.97
Pooh Jeter	45	43	0.06	-0.56	0.63	0.15	-3	-2	-1	12.7	15.0	-2.33	15.7	16.7	-0.91
DeMarcus Cousins	26	26	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-3	1	13.1	14.2	-1.17	16.7	16.1	0.67
Omri Casspi	29	29	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-5	5	14.1	13.9	0.20	15.1	16.7	-1.64
Donte Greene	56	56	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-5	5	13.6	14.4	-0.90	16.5	15.8	0.67
Francisco Garcia	36	34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	1	-7	14.8	13.4	1.41	16.1	16.3	-0.24
Samuel Dalembert	59	60	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-3	1	14.9	12.3	2.65	16.9	15.1	1.83
Tyreke Evans	61	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	14.2	13.4	0.78	16.2	16.2	-0.00
Carl Landry	70	68	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.45	-4	-1	-3	14.1	13.5	0.53	16.3	16.1	0.13
Beno Udrih	63	64	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.46	-4	-1	-3	14.1	13.6	0.54	16.4	15.9	0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.65,0.59,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.81,0.7,0.54,0.39,0.31,0.11,0.16,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 108, BOS 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.37,0.48,0.42,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.76,0.68,0.64,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.1,0.16,0.15,0	93.7%
MIL 108, ORL 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.7,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.21,0.09,0.09,0	93.5%
LAL 105, HOU 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.65,0.39,0.28,0.15,0.23,0	91.8%