NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	113		Excitement	5.5 [746]		MVP	Kevin Love (MIN): +26.3%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	1.4 [1208]		LVP	Michael Beasley (MIN): -18.4%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0.26	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.26	0.30	0.03	0.06	23	74%	0.30	2	-0.04	12	83%	0.01
Jonny Flynn	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.01	7	75%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Martell Webster	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.02	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	10	80%	-0.00
Lazar Hayward	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	0.01	7	20%	-0.08	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.15	-0.08	-0.06	0.01	8	43%	-0.01	4	-0.13	5	100%	0.02
Michael Beasley	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.03	0.04	18	41%	-0.09	5	-0.09	5	60%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.04	-0.01	16	59%	0.17	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.03	-0.04	14	50%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.00	-0.05	19	50%	0.12	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	11	63%	0.08	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	11	62%	0.06	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.9	2.4	31.7	15.7	26.3	2.6	34.4	144.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +26.4%

DEN +3.3%

DEN +1.5%

DEN +17.9%

DEN +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	DEN	NBA	MIN	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	13.8	15.5	109.7	113.9	105.7
season	14.3	14.3		102.7	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.1		106.1	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.4	16.9	13.1	13.5	14.4
DEN	11.7	13.1	15.2	15.3	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	3	2	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-1	0	20.0	14.3	5.73	11.0	13.8	-2.85
Wesley Johnson	48	49	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.06	-2	0	-2	14.1	14.7	-0.66	14.4	13.2	1.16
Lazar Hayward	17	17	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	2	-6	17.1	13.9	3.21	13.5	13.8	-0.32
Jonny Flynn	52	49	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.26	3	-5	8	14.8	14.1	0.71	14.0	13.6	0.48
Kosta Koufos	44	45	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.02	-7	5	-12	14.2	14.6	-0.48	14.1	13.6	0.54
Corey Brewer	64	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.38	3	-5	8	14.5	14.4	0.08	13.3	14.6	-1.34
Luke Ridnour	51	52	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.18	-5	3	-8	14.1	14.8	-0.71	13.6	14.0	-0.48
Michael Beasley	83	81	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.42	3	-5	8	13.6	17.7	-4.11	13.9	13.5	0.30
Kevin Love	92	90	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-3	4	14.5	13.6	0.90	13.8	13.5	0.38
Martell Webster	61	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.43	-1	-1	0	14.8	13.9	0.90	13.6	14.0	-0.36

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	74	76	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.29	9	-7	16	13.3	15.1	-1.85	13.9	15.9	-1.92
Arron Afflalo	81	82	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.30	6	-4	10	13.7	14.0	-0.32	14.1	15.8	-1.72
Nene	50	51	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.18	7	-5	12	13.5	14.1	-0.66	14.6	14.2	0.42
Al Harrington	67	69	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.46	-5	7	-12	13.8	13.9	-0.09	14.3	14.7	-0.45
J.R. Smith	57	60	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.25	2	0	2	13.6	14.1	-0.49	15.0	13.6	1.39
Carmelo Anthony	73	72	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.48	-8	10	-18	14.2	12.6	1.64	14.0	15.5	-1.45
Shelden Williams	50	52	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	-3	8	14.1	13.5	0.69	14.0	14.9	-0.96
Melvin Ely	6	5	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.02	3	-1	4	11.7	13.9	-2.26	17.0	14.3	2.69
Gary Forbes	20	21	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.06	-2	4	-6	13.7	13.8	-0.11	16.2	14.0	2.20
Anthony Carter	27	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.15	-7	9	-16	15.1	13.3	1.85	15.9	13.9	1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.41,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.79,0.79,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.85,0.95,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 94, LAC 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1	95.4%
NOP 91, ATL 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.67,0.79,0.84,0.74,0.72,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.9,0.93,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.93,0.96,1,1,1	95.3%
NYK 82, CHI 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.84,0.82,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.9%