NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	89		Excitement	4.2 [1016]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): +18.3%
Boston Celtics	105		Comeback	1.0 [1215]		LVP	Al Harrington (DEN): -16.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.12	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	10	73%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Nene	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	60%	0.05	3	-0.03	8	75%	-0.01
Melvin Ely	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.11	-0.04	0.09	14	69%	0.05	3	-0.06	7	86%	0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	18	44%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	42%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03
Shelden Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	10	23%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01
Al Harrington	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.16	-0.05	-0.04	10	35%	-0.02	6	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.16	0.03	0.01	9	89%	0.18	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.17	0.00	0.06	14	78%	0.17	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Semih Erden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	80%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.04	0	0.00	12	67%	-0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	14	52%	0.07	3	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	4	25%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Harangody	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	4	64%	0.04	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.05
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	3	57%	0.05	5	-0.11	1	0%	-0.02
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	-0.03	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.8	33.3	17.6	27.5	2.8	33.2	142.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +30.9%

BOS +10.5%

BOS +2.9%

BOS +2.5%

BOS +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	14.1	15.2	15.5	89.9	107.1	105.7
season	14.3	15.7		110.7	104.8
opponent	15.8	15.5		99.6	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.4	13.1	15.9	12.0	14.1
BOS	13.9	16.9	13.6	16.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Melvin Ely	24	25	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.16	6	-22	28	11.7	14.8	-3.09	15.1	15.2	-0.04
Al Harrington	65	65	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-17	18	13.5	15.2	-1.65	16.0	13.6	2.38
Ty Lawson	71	70	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-19	22	13.5	15.6	-2.11	15.5	14.3	1.16
Gary Forbes	42	41	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.00	-8	-8	0	13.8	14.3	-0.57	15.1	15.2	-0.14
Arron Afflalo	69	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.16	-15	-1	-14	14.2	13.8	0.42	15.3	14.9	0.36
J.R. Smith	54	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.24	-5	-11	6	14.1	14.0	0.09	14.9	15.5	-0.67
Shelden Williams	31	30	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.23	-22	6	-28	15.7	13.3	2.40	13.6	15.8	-2.19
Chauncey Billups	67	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.15	-20	4	-24	14.5	13.3	1.20	14.9	15.6	-0.72
Nene	72	70	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	0.09	-20	4	-24	14.9	11.8	3.13	15.1	15.2	-0.09

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	70	72	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.23	27	-11	38	14.9	15.9	-0.99	14.9	11.9	3.08
Paul Pierce	77	77	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.17	23	-7	30	14.5	17.6	-3.14	14.5	12.8	1.64
Rajon Rondo	60	60	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.12	20	-4	24	14.4	16.3	-1.94	15.2	12.4	2.77
Kevin Garnett	61	62	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.15	20	-4	24	14.7	15.9	-1.27	15.1	12.3	2.82
Glen Davis	53	53	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	7	2	15.4	14.9	0.49	14.0	14.2	-0.24
Semih Erden	28	28	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	13	-10	15.7	14.9	0.74	13.3	14.4	-1.12
Nate Robinson	38	39	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	20	-24	16.3	14.4	1.94	12.4	15.2	-2.77
Shaquille O'Neal	44	45	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	13	-10	15.5	14.9	0.67	14.1	14.1	-0.04
Avery Bradley	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	16.0	15.1	0.89	10.0	14.3	-4.26
Luke Harangody	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	14.5	15.2	-0.70	10.8	14.3	-3.47
Von Wafer	13	14	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.15	-6	22	-28	15.4	15.1	0.27	11.9	14.4	-2.52
Marquis Daniels	35	35	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.22	-9	25	-34	16.7	14.3	2.43	12.4	15.0	-2.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.8,0.79,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.63,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 96, PHX 116	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.68,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.89,0.98,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
MIN 102, LAL 119	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.68,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.81,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
ATL 71, DET 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.68,0.61,0.71,0.64,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%