NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	107		Excitement	6.1 [623]		MVP	Grant Hill (PHX): +20.7%
Golden State Warriors	101		Comeback	1.3 [561]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -13.5%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21	0.21	0.05	0.05	11	86%	0.21	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Jason Richardson	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.02	0.02	15	78%	0.21	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jared Dudley	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	4	64%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	9	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Nash	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.07	-0.00	9	57%	0.13	5	-0.12	5	100%	0.03
Goran Dragic	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	5	70%	0.10	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.00
Earl Barron	-0.11	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.17	-0.04	0.03	27	62%	0.21	3	-0.12	7	43%	-0.12
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	4	100%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	3	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Adrien	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	13	38%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	0.02	-0.05	0.04	17	62%	0.09	5	-0.17	6	83%	0.02
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.02	10	45%	-0.02	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.3	28.8	17.7	27.3	3.5	35.3	141.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +25.6%

PHX +21.8%

GSW -2.7%

PHX +4.5%

PHX +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	GSW	NBA	PHX	GSW	NBA
this game	14.9	15.2	15.5	112.6	105.2	105.7
season	14.5	14.8		108.0	106.6
opponent	15.2	15.7		109.0	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	12.6	14.6	17.4	15.8	14.9
GSW	15.1	15.4	17.7	13.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	51	53	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.28	7	-1	8	16.1	13.6	2.46	15.2	15.3	-0.07
Channing Frye	74	75	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.27	5	1	4	14.8	15.6	-0.81	14.6	17.4	-2.83
Steve Nash	68	70	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	-4	14	14.6	15.8	-1.23	14.8	16.3	-1.49
Jason Richardson	69	70	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.07	7	-1	8	14.4	16.4	-1.99	14.9	16.0	-1.12
Earl Barron	51	52	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.04	10	-4	14	13.7	16.4	-2.74	16.3	14.0	2.33
Grant Hill	62	63	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.10	5	1	4	14.1	16.5	-2.37	14.3	16.9	-2.58
Goran Dragic	26	26	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.26	-2	8	-10	16.3	14.4	1.94	16.3	14.8	1.49
Jared Dudley	28	26	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.31	-5	11	-16	15.8	14.6	1.20	16.0	14.9	1.12
Josh Childress	29	28	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.26	-5	11	-16	16.6	14.2	2.37	16.6	14.6	1.96
Hakim Warrick	17	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	8	-10	16.4	14.6	1.72	15.8	15.1	0.66

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Bell	7	7	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.02	-1	-5	4	15.4	15.2	0.23	13.4	15.1	-1.63
Reggie Williams	33	32	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.22	7	-13	20	13.7	16.0	-2.27	16.3	14.2	2.12
Jeff Adrien	12	11	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-4	2	20.4	14.5	5.94	17.5	14.6	2.85
Jeremy Lin	8	8	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.06	-2	-4	2	21.4	14.7	6.72	16.7	14.8	1.98
Andris Biedrins	50	48	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	-1	-4	15.5	15.0	0.50	13.9	16.0	-2.19
Rodney Carney	34	32	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-9	12	14.6	15.6	-0.98	16.3	14.2	2.07
Stephen Curry	70	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	0	-6	14.5	17.1	-2.55	14.4	16.6	-2.15
Monta Ellis	96	95	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	15.2	0.0	15.22	14.9	0.0	14.94
David Lee	90	89	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.31	-7	1	-8	15.1	16.5	-1.37	14.9	15.3	-0.42
Dorell Wright	80	81	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.23	-11	5	-16	15.2	15.1	0.11	14.6	17.0	-2.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.24,0.29,0.41,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.03,0.04,0.22,0.1,0.15,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 100, PHX 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.39,0.49,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.3,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.44,0.34,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.15,0,0	94.5%
UTA 95, CHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0	93.8%
TOR 126, ATL 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.46,0.32,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.4%