NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	82		Excitement	8.4 [187]		MVP	James Harden (OKC): +24.9%
Milwaukee Bucks	81		Comeback	1.2 [468]		LVP	John Salmons (MIL): -23.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.13	0.15	0.03	13	72%	0.35	2	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	5	40%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	10	42%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Nenad Krstic	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	45%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Eric Maynor	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	8	67%	0.06	4	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Royal Ivey	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.1,-0.04,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	18	41%	0.02	3	-0.11	8	100%	0.13
Nick Collison	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	6	37%	-0.10	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
DJ White	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	6	17%	-0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	3	30%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	11	37%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.11	-0.11	0.02	-0.13	0.00	4	78%	-0.03	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	10	40%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.11,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.13	-0.02	24	45%	-0.04	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.07
Drew Gooden	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.04	0.06	13	46%	-0.02	3	-0.12	9	67%	0.02
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.24	-0.24	-0.05	-0.18	-0.00	9	41%	-0.04	2	-0.20	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	3.5	27.4	16.6	23.3	1.7	40.8	140.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +64.1%

MIL -1.8%

MIL -40.2%

OKC +22.6%

OKC +5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	MIL	NBA	OKC	MIL	NBA
this game	16.1	15.3	15.5	90.1	88.0	105.7
season	15.0	16.2		108.8	100.1
opponent	15.4	15.6		100.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.8	17.6	16.4	14.8	16.1
MIL	14.8	14.4	16.4	15.8	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	76	76	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.48	7	-6	13	15.8	17.9	-2.08	15.7	13.7	1.93
Thabo Sefolosha	59	62	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.31	9	-8	17	15.9	16.6	-0.76	16.3	13.4	2.84
Eric Maynor	41	43	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.22	5	-4	9	16.5	15.8	0.65	13.1	17.3	-4.28
Serge Ibaka	39	40	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.40	-3	4	-7	15.8	16.4	-0.59	15.7	15.1	0.58
Nick Collison	67	65	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.32	-2	3	-5	16.0	16.4	-0.33	15.4	15.3	0.13
Russell Westbrook	64	64	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.46	-8	9	-17	15.9	16.6	-0.71	16.1	13.7	2.40
Nenad Krstic	32	34	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	-4	9	17.7	15.3	2.40	16.4	14.7	1.69
DJ White	40	40	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.01	2	-1	3	16.9	15.5	1.42	15.4	15.3	0.18
Royal Ivey	37	36	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.25	-10	11	-21	15.5	16.5	-1.00	12.9	16.9	-3.99

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	37	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	0	-1	13.3	16.7	-3.48	17.3	15.4	1.97
Corey Maggette	28	28	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.09	0	-1	1	12.9	16.4	-3.48	17.5	15.5	1.92
Ersan Ilyasova	50	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.24	3	-4	7	14.0	16.9	-2.86	16.4	15.9	0.51
Andrew Bogut	57	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.38	1	-2	3	15.8	14.5	1.30	15.5	17.2	-1.74
Brandon Jennings	82	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.50	5	-6	11	15.3	15.5	-0.17	15.6	20.7	-5.13
Luc Mbah a Moute	64	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.38	-1	0	-1	16.4	12.9	3.48	15.5	17.5	-1.92
Drew Gooden	79	77	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.43	-4	3	-7	15.6	13.7	1.93	16.1	16.6	-0.52
John Salmons	65	66	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.41	-6	5	-11	16.6	12.4	4.11	16.2	16.0	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.29,0.24,0.23,0.29,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.25,0.38,0.21,0.41,0.24,0.47,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 99, SEA 97	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.21,0.19,0.36,0.29,0.22,0.14,0.22,0.1,0.27,0	92.5%
IND 79, LAL 77	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.12,0.26,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.21,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.17,0.1,0.15,0.33,0.42,0	92.3%
MIN 102, BOS 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.22,0.18,0	92.0%