NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	83		Excitement	6.9 [463]		MVP	Rudy Fernandez (POR): +9.8%
Portland Trail Blazers	86		Comeback	3.7 [420]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -17.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.03	11	71%	0.20	5	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07	0.11	-0.03	0.00	11	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	8	65%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Shelden Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	8	52%	0.02	2	-0.08	7	86%	0.02
Carmelo Anthony	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	0.00	0.01	15	45%	0.04	3	-0.11	10	80%	-0.00
Gary Forbes	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.10	-0.07	0.00	7	27%	-0.07	3	-0.10	1	0%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	4	10%	-0.10	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.00	0.09	-0.01	6	43%	0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.02	-0.03	18	50%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	14	44%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	15	53%	0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.02	-0.03	20	50%	0.13	6	-0.17	8	75%	-0.00
Armon Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	10	23%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	1.8	28.5	19.4	26.4	2.7	37.5	145.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +18.7%

DEN -16.8%

POR +23.6%

POR +26.6%

DEN -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	POR	NBA	DEN	POR	NBA
this game	15.2	17.5	15.5	94.3	97.7	105.7
season	14.3	16.5		110.7	106.7
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.6	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.6	14.7	17.1	14.3	15.2
POR	17.3	18.9	15.6	18.5	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	72	71	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.38	11	-14	25	15.3	14.8	0.47	17.7	16.9	0.73
Melvin Ely	1	1	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-1	-1	5.0	15.3	-10.31	25.0	17.4	7.55
Chauncey Billups	67	68	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.37	9	-12	21	15.2	15.2	-0.06	17.7	17.1	0.56
Shelden Williams	34	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.13	-12	9	-21	16.5	14.4	2.18	17.9	17.3	0.57
Gary Forbes	33	32	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	0	-3	14.8	15.5	-0.70	16.4	18.2	-1.82
Al Harrington	60	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.40	2	-5	7	14.8	16.1	-1.34	17.5	17.6	-0.04
Carmelo Anthony	65	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.14	-9	6	-15	15.4	14.7	0.67	17.0	19.1	-2.13
Ty Lawson	38	38	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.29	-6	3	-9	14.9	15.4	-0.43	18.1	17.1	0.96
Arron Afflalo	70	69	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.46	-5	2	-7	15.2	15.3	-0.18	17.8	16.7	1.08

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	76	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.39	10	-7	17	17.2	19.1	-1.91	15.3	14.7	0.61
Andre Miller	74	74	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-1	5	17.9	15.7	2.16	15.1	15.9	-0.87
Wesley Matthews	73	74	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.21	9	-6	15	17.4	18.2	-0.80	15.3	14.6	0.74
Marcus Camby	66	66	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.40	-1	4	-5	17.5	17.7	-0.26	15.2	15.1	0.08
Rudy Fernandez	33	32	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.19	5	-2	7	16.9	17.9	-0.95	15.2	15.2	0.04
Nicolas Batum	70	71	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.46	-8	11	-19	18.0	15.9	2.07	15.0	15.9	-0.93
Dante Cunningham	36	33	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	6	-9	18.3	17.0	1.26	15.1	15.3	-0.21
Armon Johnson	14	14	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.07	-1	4	-5	15.7	17.9	-2.16	15.9	15.1	0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.47,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.6,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.58,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.8,0.9,0.96,0.91,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 94, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.49,0.61,0.59,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.84,1,1	92.4%
NJN 88, LAL 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.38,0.27,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.89,0.99,0.99,1,1	92.3%
MIL 104, SAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1	92.0%