NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	102		Excitement	4.8 [891]		MVP	Mike Bibby (ATL): +14.7%
Indiana Pacers	92		Comeback	1.8 [651]		LVP	Mike Dunleavy (IND): -6.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.02	-0.01	9	73%	0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Josh Smith	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.03	-0.03	16	64%	0.21	4	-0.08	7	86%	0.02
Jeff Teague	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	8	58%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Al Horford	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	12	60%	0.10	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	7	65%	0.05	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Collins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Powell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	12	41%	-0.00	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Maurice Evans	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.00	14	61%	0.13	2	-0.07	8	87%	0.01
A.J. Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	78%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.03	7	57%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.02	4	100%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	36%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	16	45%	-0.01	3	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	10	30%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	0.04	8	67%	0.03	4	-0.09	5	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.0	30.2	16.5	27.2	2.5	35.2	136.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +37.7%

ATL +3.8%

IND -9.6%

ATL +16.5%

ATL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	IND	NBA	ATL	IND	NBA
this game	17.7	15.0	15.5	114.6	105.7	105.7
season	16.5	14.7		104.0	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.5		104.5	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.0	17.9	18.5	17.5	17.7
IND	17.2	14.9	15.8	12.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	69	66	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.10	16	-6	22	18.1	16.5	1.57	14.8	15.4	-0.60
Mike Bibby	60	58	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.06	17	-7	24	17.3	18.5	-1.18	14.9	15.1	-0.14
Joe Johnson	68	64	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.11	13	-3	16	17.7	17.6	0.13	15.2	14.5	0.68
Al Horford	58	57	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.20	5	5	0	17.3	18.4	-1.07	14.9	15.0	-0.09
Marvin Williams	41	43	0.23	0.28	-0.05	0.11	4	6	-2	17.5	17.9	-0.34	16.5	13.5	3.08
Jason Collins	9	9	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.06	7	3	4	17.7	17.7	-0.06	18.3	14.6	3.74
Maurice Evans	44	43	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	8	-6	17.5	17.9	-0.39	14.9	15.0	-0.09
Jamal Crawford	47	45	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.24	-7	17	-24	18.7	16.6	2.04	13.1	17.0	-3.82
Zaza Pachulia	22	22	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.14	-4	14	-18	18.2	17.6	0.68	15.4	14.8	0.52
Jeff Teague	22	23	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.09	-3	13	-16	17.8	17.7	0.13	14.5	15.2	-0.68
Josh Powell	5	5	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.02	0	10	-10	13.0	18.0	-5.00	13.6	15.1	-1.46

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.J. Price	20	20	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.04	-5	-5	0	13.1	15.5	-2.44	19.4	17.2	2.17
Roy Hibbert	59	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-12	14	16.3	12.3	3.97	16.8	19.8	-3.02
Brandon Rush	48	49	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-8	6	13.7	16.6	-2.92	17.7	17.7	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	55	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.11	-4	-6	2	14.9	15.0	-0.09	18.4	16.4	1.99
James Posey	47	47	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.19	-2	-8	6	12.9	17.4	-4.53	18.8	16.5	2.26
Josh McRoberts	40	42	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	-2	-6	17.4	12.9	4.53	16.5	18.8	-2.26
Solomon Jones	25	24	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	1	-12	13.1	15.7	-2.61	19.4	17.1	2.32
T.J. Ford	67	69	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-5	0	15.5	13.1	2.44	17.2	19.4	-2.17
Danny Granger	74	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.12	-15	5	-20	15.5	12.2	3.23	17.4	19.4	-1.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.07,0.12,0.21,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 96, CLE 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%
NYK 73, UTA 62	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.29,0.22,0.21,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.2%
NJN 111, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%