NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	112		Excitement	4.2 [1007]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +22.4%
Miami Heat	107		Comeback	1.0 [415]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -23.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.22	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.00	-0.00	23	73%	0.25	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.03	-0.02	16	69%	0.22	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Garnett	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.00	8	76%	0.13	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	7	75%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Semih Erden	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Glen Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	8	40%	0.02	3	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	38%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.16	0.01	0.06	10	87%	0.13	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.00	0.01	10	62%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.02	6	87%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.02	0.05	21	55%	0.08	4	-0.08	22	77%	-0.00
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.23	-0.04	-0.03	12	27%	-0.11	6	-0.12	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	33.3	2.7	35.0	19.6	32.2	3.7	38.4	165.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +50.3%

MIA -10.3%

BOS +5.0%

BOS +5.7%

MIA -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.2	14.8	15.5	120.4	115.1	105.7
season	15.7	16.0		104.8	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.8		102.3	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.6	15.1	16.7	17.2	16.2
MIA	16.5	15.5	14.6	12.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	66	68	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.21	12	-7	19	16.7	15.0	1.69	14.4	15.9	-1.52
Ray Allen	80	80	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.30	7	-2	9	16.2	15.9	0.28	15.0	13.5	1.56
Rajon Rondo	76	79	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.24	8	-3	11	16.3	15.6	0.70	14.7	15.6	-0.90
Kevin Garnett	72	72	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	-1	7	16.7	14.4	2.24	14.4	16.1	-1.73
Shaquille O'Neal	40	40	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.07	13	-8	21	16.7	15.7	0.99	15.2	14.5	0.78
Glen Davis	55	55	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.38	-3	8	-11	16.0	16.4	-0.44	15.1	14.3	0.83
Nate Robinson	25	23	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.11	-4	9	-13	14.9	16.6	-1.70	13.7	15.2	-1.53
Marquis Daniels	34	32	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.16	-6	11	-17	15.0	16.8	-1.78	15.4	14.5	0.87
Semih Erden	17	16	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.15	-8	13	-21	14.7	16.5	-1.78	16.1	14.5	1.59

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	37	38	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.41	14	-19	33	12.4	16.4	-4.08	16.6	15.9	0.66
Eddie House	38	37	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.11	3	-8	11	14.3	15.1	-0.83	15.7	16.5	-0.76
Jerry Stackhouse	15	14	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-4	3	16.5	14.5	2.06	14.2	16.5	-2.29
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	37	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.07	-1	-4	3	15.8	14.1	1.67	15.3	16.7	-1.43
Joel Anthony	15	14	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	3	-11	16.3	14.5	1.74	16.9	16.0	0.82
Mario Chalmers	10	10	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	3	-11	14.2	14.9	-0.68	12.9	16.6	-3.65
Carlos Arroyo	18	18	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.09	-10	5	-15	18.0	14.0	3.96	17.0	16.0	1.04
Udonis Haslem	64	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.49	9	-14	23	14.3	16.0	-1.73	16.3	15.9	0.38
LeBron James	86	87	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.40	0	-5	5	14.7	16.6	-1.91	16.1	17.0	-0.90
Chris Bosh	68	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	1	-7	14.8	14.9	-0.10	16.7	14.6	2.14
Dwyane Wade	77	77	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.18	-17	12	-29	15.1	13.4	1.65	16.5	14.4	2.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 98, CLE 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.06,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.03,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
CHI 99, DET 83	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
MIA 119, UTA 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.39,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%