NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	85		Excitement	7.1 [403]		MVP	Al Horford (ATL): +15.9%
Atlanta Hawks	94		Comeback	4.0 [560]		LVP	Ben Gordon (DET): -17.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	14	61%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	6	42%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	16	41%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ben Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DaJuan Summers	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	42%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.01	-0.08	0.00	7	56%	0.06	2	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	9	32%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.07
Austin Daye	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	12	23%	-0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	-0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17	-0.02	-0.14	0.02	19	51%	0.01	3	-0.18	5	80%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.03	0.12	-0.01	12	69%	0.29	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.06	0.02	12	69%	0.17	1	-0.01	8	62%	-0.03
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	7	86%	0.17	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.11	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Marvin Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	4	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.27,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.10	0.05	15	44%	-0.03	2	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.5	27.4	15.7	27.1	1.8	32.2	133.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +52.5%

ATL +22.5%

DET -18.3%

DET -4.9%

DET -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	19.4	14.5	15.5	100.0	110.6	105.7
season	16.7	16.5		106.4	104.0
opponent	15.5	15.2		105.1	110.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	21.1	19.6	21.6	15.8	19.4
ATL	14.8	16.4	12.1	14.9	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Daye	39	39	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.04	4	-13	17	21.6	17.5	4.04	15.5	13.6	1.91
Rodney Stuckey	21	22	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.07	-2	-7	5	20.9	18.9	1.97	16.9	13.7	3.24
Ben Wallace	35	36	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.05	-10	1	-11	21.9	17.6	4.27	13.8	15.0	-1.17
Greg Monroe	50	49	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.28	1	-10	11	17.6	21.9	-4.27	15.0	13.8	1.17
DaJuan Summers	30	30	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.06	-8	-1	-7	19.6	19.3	0.29	11.6	16.1	-4.44
Tayshaun Prince	64	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.13	-8	-1	-7	19.7	18.4	1.32	14.7	14.0	0.74
Ben Gordon	74	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.22	-8	-1	-7	19.4	19.5	-0.09	14.8	12.6	2.23
Charlie Villanueva	66	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.26	-7	-2	-5	18.2	23.6	-5.48	14.5	14.6	-0.16
Tracy McGrady	46	48	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.31	-7	-2	-5	18.0	20.9	-2.91	13.6	15.6	-1.98

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	57	59	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.31	17	-8	25	14.6	14.4	0.17	20.3	17.4	2.87
Al Horford	63	66	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.30	17	-8	25	14.9	13.4	1.48	19.6	18.5	1.16
Josh Smith	61	62	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.27	18	-9	27	14.9	13.6	1.29	19.7	18.6	1.05
Zaza Pachulia	36	34	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.29	2	7	-5	14.2	14.7	-0.44	17.2	20.8	-3.57
Joe Johnson	73	74	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	5	-1	15.4	9.2	6.22	19.3	19.9	-0.61
Marvin Williams	56	57	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.03	9	0	9	13.7	16.1	-2.37	20.9	16.4	4.50
Jeff Teague	31	30	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.06	-4	13	-17	13.9	14.8	-0.90	17.9	20.2	-2.33
Jordan Crawford	22	20	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.07	-8	17	-25	13.4	14.9	-1.48	18.9	19.5	-0.56
Josh Powell	26	23	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	-0.02	-10	19	-29	13.8	14.8	-0.95	17.7	20.0	-2.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.52,0.43,0.29,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.39,0.62,0.54,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 73, DET 76	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.41,0.45,0.46,0.64,0.45,0.84,0.91,1	92.4%
UTA 99, PHX 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.99,1	91.7%
CHI 80, TOR 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.47,0.62,0.63,0.89,0.96,1	91.7%