NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	83		Excitement	3.0 [1203]		MVP	Derek Fisher (LAL): +10.4%
Los Angeles Lakers	107		Comeback	1.0 [1258]		LVP	David Lee (GSW): -11.2%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Gadzuric	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	0.00	0.08	6	85%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.02	15	53%	0.03	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Monta Ellis	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.07	20	48%	0.05	4	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Adrien	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Carney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	7	50%	-0.02	4	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	10	35%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	0.03	7	36%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.17	0.00	-0.06	3	0%	-0.04	5	-0.07	2	0%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.00	-0.00	6	93%	0.12	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	9	73%	0.07	2	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.04	19	55%	0.08	2	-0.03	9	67%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	16	56%	0.06	4	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Derrick Caracter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	6	36%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Ebanks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	4	33%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	3	25%	-0.01	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	11	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	0.03	8	44%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.7	28.2	16.7	27.8	2.0	32.3	132.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +20.5%

LAL +9.6%

LAL +18.5%

GSW -0.8%

LAL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	LAL	NBA	GSW	LAL	NBA
this game	14.1	15.1	15.5	84.7	108.1	105.7
season	14.8	15.9		106.6	108.8
opponent	15.5	15.2		103.1	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.4	12.6	13.9	14.9	14.1
LAL	17.3	14.0	15.5	14.0	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandan Wright	35	37	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-27	30	12.8	14.9	-2.03	14.4	15.5	-1.11
Jeff Adrien	8	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-26	28	14.5	14.1	0.40	13.1	15.3	-2.19
Dan Gadzuric	34	34	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.12	-5	-19	14	13.0	14.7	-1.69	15.3	15.0	0.25
Vladimir Radmanovic	19	18	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.07	1	-25	26	11.5	14.8	-3.30	15.9	14.9	1.03
Rodney Carney	36	37	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.14	-6	-18	12	14.0	14.2	-0.25	14.0	15.8	-1.76
Jeremy Lin	32	34	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-27	30	14.5	14.0	0.50	14.9	15.2	-0.38
Charlie Bell	45	45	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-22	20	13.3	14.8	-1.56	14.1	15.9	-1.81
Reggie Williams	45	46	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.14	-17	-7	-10	14.4	13.9	0.41	16.2	14.1	2.09
Andris Biedrins	55	55	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.09	-18	-6	-12	14.7	13.4	1.36	15.4	14.8	0.59
David Lee	36	37	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.30	-26	2	-28	15.9	13.1	2.86	15.4	15.0	0.40
Dorell Wright	67	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.16	-22	-2	-20	14.5	13.3	1.18	15.8	13.7	2.11
Monta Ellis	78	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	0.44	-33	9	-42	14.5	12.6	1.93	15.0	15.3	-0.28

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pau Gasol	72	70	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.38	33	-9	42	14.8	16.0	-1.24	14.8	12.4	2.39
Kobe Bryant	55	54	0.51	-0.00	0.51	-0.11	21	3	18	15.2	14.9	0.30	14.5	13.6	0.90
Lamar Odom	57	58	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.21	24	0	24	15.5	14.6	0.84	14.5	13.6	0.86
Metta World Peace	61	59	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.31	27	-3	30	14.9	15.4	-0.56	14.7	13.3	1.46
Derek Fisher	52	51	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.07	18	6	12	15.0	15.3	-0.29	14.5	13.7	0.79
Matt Barnes	49	49	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.13	8	16	-8	14.7	15.5	-0.77	13.8	14.5	-0.67
Steve Blake	33	34	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.16	7	17	-10	15.5	14.9	0.62	13.4	14.5	-1.19
Shannon Brown	46	46	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.12	5	19	-14	15.2	15.0	0.22	13.6	14.6	-1.07
Derrick Caracter	14	14	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.04	-1	25	-26	14.6	15.2	-0.53	14.4	14.1	0.26
Sasha Vujacic	17	16	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	26	-28	13.7	15.4	-1.68	14.3	14.1	0.21
Theo Ratliff	13	14	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.14	-8	32	-40	17.5	14.7	2.72	10.5	14.7	-4.24
Devin Ebanks	26	25	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.24	-12	36	-48	15.7	14.9	0.85	13.0	14.5	-1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 87, CLE 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
CLE 79, NJN 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.78,0.73,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
IND 87, ATL 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	96.7%