NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	89		Excitement	5.2 [754]		MVP	Caron Butler (DAL): +4.4%
Dallas Mavericks	96		Comeback	1.7 [922]		LVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): -13.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ian Mahinmi	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	4	67%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
George Hill	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	-0.03	0.04	21	59%	0.08	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01
Keith Bogans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.01	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	0.03	13	50%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.02	0.01	16	44%	-0.04	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.03	9	11%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	8	12%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	12	62%	0.09	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	20	45%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	12	62%	0.09	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.03	6	47%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	11	42%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.16	0.00	-0.03	13	27%	-0.07	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	3.4	27.6	16.3	24.1	1.8	30.3	127.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +34.4%

DAL +2.4%

DAL +6.7%

DAL +5.0%

DAL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	14.8	14.3	15.3	89.9	97.0	106.0
season	15.9	15.2		108.2	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.1		104.6	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.0	15.0	14.8	13.6	14.8
DAL	14.0	14.4	14.0	14.6	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	11	11	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-9	11	14.9	14.8	0.09	16.0	14.0	1.95
DeJuan Blair	74	74	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.34	9	-16	25	14.8	15.0	-0.23	14.6	13.3	1.31
Richard Jefferson	46	45	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.09	0	-7	7	15.5	14.2	1.34	14.3	14.3	0.01
Antonio McDyess	39	40	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.11	-1	-6	5	15.5	14.4	1.13	15.0	13.7	1.32
Garrett Temple	53	53	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.24	-3	-4	1	14.3	15.5	-1.17	14.8	13.7	1.10
Roger Mason Jr.	74	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-5	3	15.0	14.3	0.73	14.4	13.7	0.68
Ian Mahinmi	32	31	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.09	-9	2	-11	15.4	14.5	0.90	13.6	14.6	-0.99
Tony Parker	63	61	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	4	-15	15.0	14.6	0.34	13.5	15.5	-1.97
Keith Bogans	49	50	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.15	-9	2	-11	14.4	15.3	-0.87	14.2	14.3	-0.17
Matt Bonner	54	54	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	4	-15	14.0	15.9	-1.90	13.5	15.2	-1.76

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	58	57	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	-4	15	14.3	14.1	0.20	15.1	14.5	0.65
Jason Terry	54	54	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.19	8	-1	9	14.1	14.4	-0.33	14.7	15.0	-0.27
Dirk Nowitzki	70	69	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	-1	9	14.0	14.8	-0.75	14.4	15.7	-1.30
Shawn Marion	62	62	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.14	6	1	5	14.3	14.2	0.03	15.2	14.2	0.98
DeShawn Stevenson	12	13	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.04	11	-4	15	11.6	14.6	-3.05	15.2	14.8	0.46
Jason Kidd	58	59	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	1	5	14.1	14.5	-0.43	15.0	14.5	0.51
Jose Juan Barea	41	40	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.20	1	6	-5	14.5	14.1	0.43	14.5	15.0	-0.51
Caron Butler	79	79	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.30	-6	13	-19	14.7	12.7	1.96	15.1	13.9	1.16
Rodrigue Beaubois	15	15	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	8	-9	15.1	14.1	1.03	14.2	14.9	-0.74
Erick Dampier	36	36	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.15	-4	11	-15	14.6	14.1	0.55	14.8	14.8	0.01
Eduardo Najera	10	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	12	-17	13.6	14.3	-0.74	13.1	15.0	-1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.74,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.89,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 93, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.37,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.9,0.84,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
NYK 108, DET 115	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.74,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.9,0.98,0.93,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,0.98,1,1,1	95.4%
SAS 84, NJN 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%