NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	8.4 [179]		MVP	Jason Kapono (PHI): +35.7%
Philadelphia 76ers	105		Comeback	4.3 [401]		LVP	Jrue Holiday (PHI): -62.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.23	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.23	0.10	0.12	-0.01	19	67%	0.38	4	-0.16	7	71%	-0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.11	0.12	0.01	8	75%	0.22	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0,0,0,0,0,0.17	0.01	0.15	-0.00	10	60%	0.38	2	-0.21	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	7	63%	0.13	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Michael Beasley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.04	0.03	9	65%	0.01	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Joel Anthony	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Quentin Richardson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.07,-0.07	0.03	-0.09	0.01	13	52%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.25	0.11	0.00	12	100%	0.36	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.20	0.07	-0.03	12	87%	0.30	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,0.08	0.08	-0.02	0.12	0.01	8	54%	0.17	3	-0.09	10	50%	-0.18
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.01	12	58%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Lou Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	5	85%	0.14	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.05	0.00	6	62%	0.05	1	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Carney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.16,-0.22,-0.32,-0.43,-0.62	-0.62	-0.12	-0.50	0.01	8	25%	-0.33	3	-0.29	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.6	27.4	16.4	29.4	2.4	34.8	138.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +10.5%

MIA +30.1%

MIA +6.7%

MIA +2.1%

MIA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	17.1	15.6	15.3	121.6	119.3	106.0
season	16.2	15.1		104.4	104.2
opponent	15.8	15.4		108.4	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.5	17.3	16.0	17.7	17.1
PHI	15.3	15.5	16.0	15.8	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dorell Wright	50	50	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.46	14	-12	26	16.5	17.8	-1.28	16.0	15.2	0.80
Udonis Haslem	55	56	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.52	7	-5	12	16.3	18.3	-1.99	15.5	15.9	-0.42
Dwyane Wade	67	66	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.49	-1	3	-4	16.3	19.6	-3.26	14.6	18.8	-4.24
Quentin Richardson	58	56	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.30	-3	5	-8	16.5	18.3	-1.83	14.7	17.2	-2.44
Michael Beasley	58	60	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.39	-7	9	-16	16.5	18.3	-1.78	15.1	16.7	-1.53
Jamaal Magloire	25	25	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	-3	8	18.4	16.6	1.88	17.2	15.0	2.18
Mario Chalmers	33	33	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.08	7	-5	12	18.2	16.4	1.84	17.3	14.7	2.62
Carlos Arroyo	59	61	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.22	-7	9	-16	18.2	14.8	3.43	16.3	14.1	2.25
Joel Anthony	35	33	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.09	-5	7	-12	18.6	16.1	2.55	15.8	15.5	0.24

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Carney	14	14	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-2	2	18.0	15.2	2.81	19.2	16.7	2.53
Marreese Speights	30	29	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.10	-5	3	-8	17.1	14.9	2.17	17.0	17.1	-0.08
Jason Smith	8	8	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.01	-1	-1	0	17.6	15.4	2.19	16.7	17.1	-0.38
Willie Green	8	8	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.00	-5	3	-8	16.1	15.6	0.54	19.5	16.8	2.65
Lou Williams	34	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.06	-4	2	-6	15.1	16.0	-0.85	17.0	17.1	-0.10
Andre Iguodala	59	60	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-3	4	15.4	16.1	-0.75	17.3	16.6	0.76
Elton Brand	61	61	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.37	4	-6	10	15.1	16.7	-1.59	17.0	17.3	-0.30
Jrue Holiday	58	58	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.42	2	-4	6	15.6	15.6	0.00	16.7	17.9	-1.18
Samuel Dalembert	57	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.54	5	-7	12	15.0	16.8	-1.76	17.4	16.5	0.95
Jason Kapono	68	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.41	0	-2	2	15.0	17.6	-2.61	16.6	18.8	-2.21
Jodie Meeks	43	43	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.24	-7	5	-12	16.6	14.7	1.89	16.8	17.4	-0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.66,0.62,0.79,0.75,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 110, DET 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.78,0.72,0.87,0.88,0.81,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.53,0.36,0.53,0.39,0.47,0.45,0.22,0.26,0	91.5%
LAL 105, HOU 100	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.65,0.39,0.28,0.15,0.23,0	91.1%
MIA 89, CHI 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.73,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.33,0.27,0	90.7%