NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	123		Excitement	8.2 [206]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +58.9%
Houston Rockets	125		Comeback	16.8 [60]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -9.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.59	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.25,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.35,0.4,0.46,0.59	0.19	0.42	0.02	35	58%	0.61	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.04
Chauncey Billups	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.04	0.10	-0.02	13	65%	0.20	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.07	-0.02	18	45%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Johan Petro	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	6	73%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.06	-0.04	0.00	9	67%	0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Joey Graham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	14	44%	-0.05	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.47	0.47	0.16	0.33	0.02	17	72%	0.57	3	-0.10	9	78%	-0.04
Luis Scola	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.4	0.40	0.08	0.32	0.00	18	62%	0.47	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.04
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.04	0.02	16	64%	0.19	2	-0.04	13	77%	-0.05
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.07	0.01	9	60%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.03	-0.03	5	60%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
David Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	1	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chase Budinger	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.7	31.6	16.0	27.0	1.8	39.6	144.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +31.3%

HOU +24.6%

HOU +0.4%

DEN -7.5%

HOU +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	16.0	14.0	15.3	128.1	130.2	106.0
season	14.4	15.0		110.3	106.0
opponent	15.1	15.5		106.1	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.2	14.4	16.1	17.6	16.0
HOU	10.9	15.0	15.2	15.1	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johan Petro	49	48	0.34	-0.84	1.19	0.20	5	-7	12	16.3	15.8	0.46	13.9	14.0	-0.12
Joey Graham	12	12	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.12	2	-4	6	17.9	15.8	2.14	18.7	13.3	5.48
Anthony Carter	39	37	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.14	8	-10	18	14.3	17.2	-2.88	14.5	13.6	0.95
Chris Andersen	34	34	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.02	-1	-1	0	15.1	16.5	-1.43	13.7	14.1	-0.44
Carmelo Anthony	81	81	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.49	6	-8	14	16.1	15.7	0.37	13.7	15.3	-1.55
Arron Afflalo	69	68	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.54	-4	2	-6	16.0	16.0	0.01	13.5	15.1	-1.57
Nene	77	79	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.54	-5	3	-8	16.0	16.2	-0.14	13.8	14.6	-0.77
J.R. Smith	57	58	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.50	-7	5	-12	16.1	15.9	0.16	14.2	13.6	0.63
Chauncey Billups	62	63	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.30	-14	12	-26	17.0	14.3	2.66	13.7	14.5	-0.89

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Martin	84	83	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.44	12	-10	22	13.7	15.6	-1.86	16.6	12.5	4.14
Luis Scola	78	78	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-2	6	13.4	16.2	-2.79	16.7	13.2	3.47
Shane Battier	51	49	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.53	1	1	0	13.7	14.3	-0.58	15.8	16.3	-0.46
Trevor Ariza	69	72	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.47	0	2	-2	14.6	12.3	2.26	16.5	14.6	1.94
Aaron Brooks	73	71	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.51	-4	6	-10	13.4	15.8	-2.46	15.6	17.4	-1.84
David Andersen	20	20	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	-3	8	14.2	13.9	0.31	14.5	16.4	-1.88
Chase Budinger	9	9	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.07	-4	6	-10	14.2	13.9	0.29	13.0	16.4	-3.36
Kyle Lowry	33	36	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.13	1	1	0	15.7	13.0	2.65	16.0	16.1	-0.07
Jordan Hill	25	24	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.06	-3	5	-8	15.3	13.5	1.84	13.9	16.8	-2.89
Charles Hayes	38	38	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.10	-2	4	-6	13.3	14.4	-1.11	16.7	15.6	1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.8,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.19,0.1,0.09,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.1,0.16,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 85, LAL 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.26,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.06,0.15,1	91.2%
BOS 80, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.63,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.05,0.17,1	91.1%
HOU 89, LAC 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.6,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.32,0.36,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.23,0.08,1	91.1%