NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	110		Excitement	5.6 [682]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +12.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	102		Comeback	3.2 [637]		LVP	Damien Wilkins (MIN): -7.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.07	-0.02	15	50%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.04	0.02	7	67%	0.11	0	0.00	7	86%	0.02
Chauncey Billups	0.10	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.03	18	61%	0.13	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Arron Afflalo	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	9	53%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nene	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	-0.01	0.06	9	68%	0.05	1	-0.02	7	71%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	16	47%	0.08	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.02
Joey Graham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	54%	0.07	0	0.00	10	90%	0.02
Jonny Flynn	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	48%	0.05	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Nathan Jawai	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darko Milicic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	6	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	11	41%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.06	19	52%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	47%	0.03	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Al Jefferson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	13	52%	0.04	3	-0.08	7	43%	-0.04
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	8	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	0.05	7	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.7	30.3	15.8	27.2	2.5	37.3	140.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +44.4%

DEN +6.7%

MIN -17.5%

DEN +14.8%

DEN +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	13.9	14.9	15.3	110.0	102.0	106.0
season	14.4	14.7		110.3	100.1
opponent	14.8	15.5		109.8	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.2	14.0	12.9	14.6	13.9
MIN	17.1	12.7	15.9	14.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	70	69	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.28	9	-1	10	13.7	14.5	-0.88	14.2	16.4	-2.14
Anthony Carter	33	34	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.12	14	-6	20	12.9	14.4	-1.55	15.4	14.6	0.76
Carmelo Anthony	84	85	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.29	2	6	-4	14.1	12.9	1.24	14.5	16.9	-2.42
Chris Andersen	52	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.37	-2	10	-12	13.8	14.0	-0.23	14.9	14.9	0.05
Chauncey Billups	76	75	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.25	2	6	-4	14.0	13.5	0.50	14.8	15.2	-0.43
Arron Afflalo	65	66	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	2	4	14.5	12.9	1.59	15.2	14.2	1.02
Nene	74	72	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	6	-4	14.6	12.1	2.44	15.5	13.4	2.07
Johan Petro	28	28	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.11	5	3	2	13.5	14.1	-0.53	15.8	14.5	1.31
Joey Graham	7	7	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	6	-4	12.1	14.1	-1.91	14.6	14.9	-0.33
Malik Allen	11	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	8	-8	11.5	14.2	-2.77	13.0	15.1	-2.14

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nathan Jawai	3	3	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.03	1	-9	10	12.3	15.0	-2.63	13.7	13.9	-0.26
Darko Milicic	55	54	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-10	12	15.4	14.3	1.12	13.7	14.2	-0.43
Ramon Sessions	46	45	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-11	14	14.0	15.6	-1.63	13.6	14.2	-0.66
Kevin Love	57	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.01	-7	-1	-6	14.7	15.1	-0.41	13.7	14.1	-0.39
Damien Wilkins	41	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.27	2	-10	12	13.4	15.9	-2.53	13.7	14.1	-0.44
Al Jefferson	64	66	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.13	-4	-4	0	15.2	14.4	0.77	14.1	13.6	0.55
Jonny Flynn	54	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	3	-14	15.6	14.0	1.63	14.2	13.6	0.66
Corey Brewer	70	70	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.18	-6	-2	-4	14.1	16.8	-2.70	13.7	14.4	-0.69
Wayne Ellington	38	37	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.19	-7	-1	-6	16.2	14.1	2.06	14.4	13.7	0.73
Ryan Gomes	72	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.13	-13	5	-18	15.5	13.4	2.07	14.2	13.3	0.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.32,0.22,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.01,0.02,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 125, GSW 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.8%
DEN 125, CHI 107	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.72,0.64,0.71,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.11,0.02,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.4%
PHI 107, DEN 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.65,0.75,0.75,0.85,0.86,0.74,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.44,0.28,0.38,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.08,0	92.4%