NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	116		Excitement	4.8 [841]		MVP	Al Horford (ATL): +6.6%
Chicago Bulls	92		Comeback	1.0 [702]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -9.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	14	47%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Marvin Williams	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	-0.00	0.04	14	56%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Jamal Crawford	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.11	0.01	0.07	13	66%	0.08	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Zaza Pachulia	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	5	50%	0.05	1	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Maurice Evans	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Mario West	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.02	14	53%	0.05	3	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Joe Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	0.00	0.04	4	62%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	15	41%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	5	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	24	48%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Brad Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	12	58%	0.09	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Joe Alexander	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	9	55%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	10	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	0.03	13	44%	-0.01	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.01	-0.03	9	11%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	30.5	15.6	25.5	2.0	25.3	125.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +2.8%

ATL +13.1%

ATL +25.7%

ATL +7.9%

ATL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	CHI	NBA	ATL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.8	13.6	15.3	118.4	93.9	106.0
season	16.0	14.7		109.4	101.9
opponent	15.7	15.8		103.9	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.6	14.8	16.3	16.5	15.8
CHI	13.8	14.6	13.0	13.0	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	72	71	0.59	-0.09	0.69	-0.14	25	-1	26	15.6	16.3	-0.76	14.3	11.7	2.62
Al Horford	67	67	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.07	17	7	10	15.3	16.7	-1.40	14.3	12.1	2.20
Marvin Williams	64	65	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.05	16	8	8	15.5	16.4	-0.91	14.5	11.9	2.60
Josh Smith	70	68	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.08	15	9	6	15.2	17.2	-1.95	14.5	11.5	3.08
Jamal Crawford	61	61	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.23	18	6	12	16.8	14.1	2.70	13.2	14.3	-1.16
Mike Bibby	43	42	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.04	11	13	-2	14.3	17.0	-2.68	14.1	13.2	0.86
Zaza Pachulia	36	37	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.10	8	16	-8	17.4	14.8	2.62	12.8	14.1	-1.27
Joe Smith	20	21	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.13	6	18	-12	17.5	15.3	2.15	10.1	14.6	-4.46
Maurice Evans	23	22	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	24	-24	17.1	15.4	1.70	12.9	13.8	-0.95
Mario West	8	9	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.13	5	19	-14	11.7	16.1	-4.39	8.9	14.1	-5.19
Jeff Teague	26	27	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.06	-1	25	-26	16.3	15.6	0.76	11.7	14.3	-2.62

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Alexander	8	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.15	-5	-19	14	8.9	14.0	-5.15	13.1	16.0	-2.85
Acie Law	10	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.21	-7	-17	10	10.9	13.9	-3.01	15.7	15.8	-0.13
Jannero Pargo	37	37	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.15	-11	-13	2	11.9	14.6	-2.66	17.2	14.9	2.25
Taj Gibson	67	69	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.13	-11	-13	2	13.1	14.6	-1.43	16.1	15.1	0.92
Ronald Murray	63	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.13	-12	-12	0	13.2	14.3	-1.15	16.7	14.2	2.43
James Johnson	50	51	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.24	-17	-7	-10	13.3	13.9	-0.62	14.5	17.1	-2.58
Hakim Warrick	49	48	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-19	14	14.5	12.7	1.73	16.5	15.1	1.40
Derrick Rose	64	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-10	-14	4	14.3	12.3	1.96	15.3	16.8	-1.56
Kirk Hinrich	68	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.10	-20	-4	-16	14.6	11.4	3.17	14.8	18.1	-3.29
Brad Miller	74	74	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	0.09	-22	-2	-20	14.2	11.7	2.51	16.1	14.7	1.37

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.28,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.12,0.18,0.2,0.12,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.08,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 99, NYK 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.16,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.11,0.19,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
GSW 107, ATL 99	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.22,0.18,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.01,0	95.0%
SAS 103, IND 77	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.23,0.22,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.16,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.13,0.22,0.14,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%