NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	88		Excitement	9.8 [67]		MVP	Anthony Tolliver (GSW): +20.4%
Golden State Warriors	95		Comeback	8.4 [226]		LVP	Anthony Morrow (GSW): -34.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Jerebko	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	8	61%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Ben Gordon	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	5	67%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Jason Maxiell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Ben Wallace	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	2	38%	-0.08	1	-0.00	9	11%	-0.27
Rodney Stuckey	-0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09	-0.00	-0.10	-0.02	15	49%	-0.04	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.04
Will Bynum	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	0.01	-0.02	19	36%	-0.03	4	-0.09	6	67%	-0.03
Charlie Villanueva	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.13	-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	9	39%	-0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.21,-0.32,-0.32	-0.10	-0.23	-0.01	21	43%	-0.14	4	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.07	0.14	0.00	14	59%	0.23	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.00	5	65%	0.10	1	-0.02	7	43%	-0.22
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	25	51%	0.04	5	-0.17	3	67%	-0.01
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.09,-0.13,-0.04,0.06,0,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	15	45%	0.01	6	-0.17	8	62%	-0.05
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.37,-0.37,-0.35	-0.35	-0.12	-0.22	0.00	19	37%	-0.19	4	-0.16	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.0	27.0	15.7	24.4	2.4	42.5	137.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +41.4%

GSW +4.8%

GSW +4.1%

GSW +5.7%

DET -6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	GSW	NBA	DET	GSW	NBA
this game	16.1	12.0	15.3	86.3	92.2	106.0
season	16.8	13.4		104.0	106.5
opponent	14.8	15.2		110.0	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.2	14.9	16.2	14.6	16.1
GSW	12.1	13.3	11.5	11.1	12.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	61	61	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.05	4	-11	15	16.9	15.0	1.92	12.0	12.1	-0.17
Ben Wallace	61	60	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-7	7	16.3	15.8	0.45	12.7	11.0	1.75
Ben Gordon	42	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.20	1	-8	9	14.7	17.1	-2.35	11.8	12.2	-0.35
Will Bynum	29	28	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	4	-15	15.9	16.2	-0.23	10.7	12.5	-1.74
Rodney Stuckey	73	75	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.38	4	-11	15	16.2	15.9	0.23	12.5	10.7	1.74
Charlie Villanueva	35	37	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	0	-7	15.9	16.2	-0.24	12.4	11.8	0.52
Tayshaun Prince	93	95	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.24	-10	3	-13	16.1	16.0	0.11	12.1	10.5	1.65
Jason Maxiell	44	45	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.30	-8	1	-9	15.7	16.4	-0.69	11.2	12.7	-1.53
Richard Hamilton	72	72	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.33	-8	1	-9	16.4	15.4	1.04	11.8	12.5	-0.76

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Watson	96	95	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.32	9	-2	11	12.0	11.9	0.17	16.2	15.1	1.03
Ronny Turiaf	54	54	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.32	9	-2	11	11.4	12.7	-1.21	15.6	16.7	-1.11
Stephen Curry	103	102	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	12.0	0.0	12.02	16.1	0.0	16.10
Anthony Morrow	103	102	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	0	7	12.0	0.0	12.02	16.1	0.0	16.10
Anthony Tolliver	92	90	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.32	6	1	5	12.1	11.1	1.04	15.5	20.7	-5.27
Devean George	21	21	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	4	-1	10.3	12.5	-2.12	17.4	15.8	1.68
Andris Biedrins	32	31	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	7	-7	12.7	11.7	0.92	18.8	14.9	3.89
Chris Hunter	14	15	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.00	-6	13	-19	14.5	11.6	2.87	13.8	16.5	-2.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.2,0.34,0.27,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.45,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 77, ATL 85	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.17,0.14,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.83,1	92.5%
IND 89, TOR 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.53,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.58,1	91.1%
LAC 93, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.55,0.67,0.9,1	90.8%