NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	104		Excitement	8.1 [216]		MVP	Jason Richardson (PHX): +53.5%
Oklahoma City Thunder	102		Comeback	91.6 [4]		LVP	James Harden (OKC): -17.3%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Richardson	0.53	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.53	0.06	0.47	-0.00	17	54%	0.56	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.06
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.05	-0.01	20	59%	0.18	2	-0.03	11	55%	-0.09
Grant Hill	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	11	81%	0.19	5	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Channing Frye	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Earl Clark	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	11	73%	0.18	6	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	3	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jared Dudley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	6	40%	-0.03	1	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Robin Lopez	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	3	25%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.25	0.25	0.18	0.07	0.00	24	65%	0.30	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.05
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	4	87%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.05	0.00	5	45%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.07	-0.07	0.04	-0.12	-0.01	18	52%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.17	-0.17	-0.00	-0.16	0.01	14	47%	-0.15	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.04
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.07	-0.02	7	31%	-0.03	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	27.1	16.5	28.3	2.5	40.5	141.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +79.8%

OKC -3.1%

OKC -18.4%

OKC -12.2%

PHX +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	OKC	NBA	PHX	OKC	NBA
this game	15.0	15.2	15.3	109.5	106.2	106.0
season	14.4	15.0		113.5	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.1	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.0	14.9	15.3	15.9	15.0
OKC	16.0	14.5	14.7	15.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	77	78	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.56	12	-10	22	14.7	16.4	-1.78	15.4	14.0	1.42
Amar'e Stoudemire	75	75	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.54	12	-10	22	14.6	16.5	-1.96	15.2	15.1	0.02
Goran Dragic	78	80	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.42	6	-4	10	15.2	14.0	1.22	15.0	15.7	-0.71
Grant Hill	73	73	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.44	3	-1	4	14.7	16.0	-1.30	15.2	14.9	0.32
Jared Dudley	57	60	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.49	-2	4	-6	14.9	15.1	-0.13	14.9	15.5	-0.59
Robin Lopez	37	36	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	-7	16	13.4	16.0	-2.57	15.5	14.9	0.59
Earl Clark	11	10	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	5	-8	15.4	15.0	0.41	14.0	15.3	-1.29
Channing Frye	36	37	-0.54	1.04	-1.58	-0.13	-14	16	-30	17.4	13.5	3.89	15.1	15.2	-0.17
Lou Amundson	31	31	-0.57	1.07	-1.64	-0.19	-13	15	-28	16.0	14.5	1.53	15.1	15.2	-0.09

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Maynor	37	38	0.80	-1.30	2.11	0.36	15	-17	32	14.5	15.6	-1.05	17.0	13.7	3.29
Serge Ibaka	35	35	0.45	-0.95	1.40	0.33	4	-6	10	16.1	14.6	1.42	16.5	14.1	2.35
James Harden	52	50	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.47	13	-15	28	15.3	15.0	0.33	16.8	13.0	3.80
Nick Collison	36	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.42	7	-9	16	15.1	15.2	-0.07	15.9	14.4	1.51
Nenad Krstic	41	41	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.02	-14	12	-26	15.4	15.0	0.37	13.0	16.5	-3.43
Kevin Durant	83	81	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.43	-5	3	-8	15.3	14.2	1.16	14.8	16.1	-1.34
Russell Westbrook	80	77	-0.73	0.23	-0.97	-0.47	-9	7	-16	15.5	13.6	1.84	14.4	17.5	-3.08
Thabo Sefolosha	41	41	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.31	-16	14	-30	15.1	15.2	-0.02	13.4	16.2	-2.79
Jeff Green	75	75	-0.93	0.43	-1.37	-0.79	-5	3	-8	14.4	18.0	-3.64	14.4	17.2	-2.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.14,0.18,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.16,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.97,0.85,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 95, SEA 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.5,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.76,0.68,0.86,0.8,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.85,0	88.9%
ORL 109, POR 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.74,0.88,0.83,0.75,0.84,0.98,0.98,0	88.2%
HOU 104, OKC 103	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.71,0.78,0.92,0.97,1,0.91,0	88.0%