NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	95		Excitement	6.3 [521]		MVP	Ronald Murray (CHI): +28.9%
Washington Wizards	101		Comeback	3.8 [230]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -13.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronald Murray	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.3,0.29	0.12	0.17	-0.00	10	67%	0.29	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Hakim Warrick	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	9	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
James Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	16	56%	0.09	4	-0.11	7	86%	0.03
Taj Gibson	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	7	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.06
Brad Miller	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	7	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.03	0.03	7	43%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14	-0.03	-0.08	0.02	11	44%	-0.09	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andray Blatche	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.06	0.02	13	71%	0.21	3	-0.05	9	100%	0.05
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	13	55%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Quinton Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.00	6	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.08	-0.02	17	50%	0.16	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	7	57%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Fabricio Oberto	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Singleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	10	41%	0.00	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	32.4	15.6	27.1	1.8	37.6	141.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +37.3%

CHI -2.9%

WAS +11.0%

WAS +3.3%

WAS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	WAS	NBA	CHI	WAS	NBA
this game	14.0	17.5	15.3	104.4	109.8	106.0
season	14.7	15.7		101.9	102.6
opponent	15.3	15.7		107.9	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	13.3	15.6	14.9	12.2	14.0
WAS	18.0	16.3	16.4	19.1	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	17	16	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-11	16	13.2	14.2	-1.01	18.5	17.2	1.26
Jannero Pargo	8	10	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-9	12	15.0	13.9	1.10	19.7	17.2	2.52
Joakim Noah	22	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-7	8	13.0	14.3	-1.32	20.2	16.5	3.68
Ronald Murray	47	50	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-6	6	13.3	14.8	-1.50	19.1	15.5	3.64
Brad Miller	49	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-2	-2	14.6	13.4	1.19	16.2	18.8	-2.59
Hakim Warrick	53	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-3	0	13.8	14.2	-0.36	18.8	15.6	3.28
Derrick Rose	74	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	0	-6	14.2	13.0	1.23	17.2	18.5	-1.30
Taj Gibson	54	54	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.23	-6	0	-6	14.3	13.6	0.68	16.2	19.2	-2.99
Kirk Hinrich	70	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-3	0	13.9	14.2	-0.25	16.3	21.0	-4.78
Luol Deng	61	64	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.19	-17	11	-28	14.2	13.5	0.75	17.0	18.6	-1.65

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	66	64	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.27	12	-6	18	16.7	19.3	-2.58	14.5	12.9	1.53
JaVale McGee	42	41	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-6	18	17.3	17.6	-0.23	14.8	13.3	1.46
Randy Foye	72	71	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	-2	10	16.9	19.4	-2.55	13.9	14.2	-0.26
Andray Blatche	79	80	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.24	5	1	4	17.5	17.5	-0.01	14.0	13.6	0.41
Al Thornton	55	56	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.22	4	2	2	18.1	16.5	1.62	13.9	14.2	-0.37
James Singleton	54	53	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.27	-4	10	-14	17.6	17.2	0.42	13.0	15.4	-2.39
Earl Boykins	21	21	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	6	-6	18.8	17.1	1.75	13.5	14.1	-0.62
Josh Howard	16	16	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.01	2	4	-2	15.9	17.8	-1.84	13.2	14.2	-0.91
Quinton Ross	34	34	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.10	-3	9	-12	17.2	17.6	-0.40	14.2	13.9	0.28
Fabricio Oberto	7	6	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	7	-8	18.3	17.4	0.90	16.8	13.8	3.03
Nick Young	14	13	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	11	-16	20.8	16.9	3.93	13.8	14.0	-0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.59,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.56,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.96,0.86,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 96, DAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.42,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.2%
SAC 80, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.81,0.78,0.88,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,0.98,1,1	93.1%
POR 71, UTA 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.36,0.25,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.56,0.63,0.79,0.66,0.77,0.8,0.86,0.93,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	92.9%