NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	95		Excitement	6.6 [464]		MVP	Brendan Haywood (DAL): +16.5%
Orlando Magic	85		Comeback	6.3 [81]		LVP	JJ Redick (ORL): -15.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brendan Haywood	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.09	0.02	10	62%	0.16	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.09	0.03	11	62%	0.16	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	8	62%	0.12	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.01	3	67%	0.06	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	18	41%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	24	46%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	19	60%	0.15	2	-0.06	10	70%	-0.04
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	15	53%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	-0.03	10	55%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	15	53%	0.05	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	9	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	3.0	29.0	19.5	26.4	3.6	35.5	145.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +41.3%

DAL +8.3%

ORL -9.3%

DAL +4.6%

DAL +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	ORL	NBA	DAL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.9	14.9	15.3	101.1	91.4	106.0
season	15.2	15.4		107.2	110.1
opponent	15.9	15.5		101.9	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.4	15.4	15.4	16.3	15.9
ORL	13.6	14.0	17.3	15.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	69	68	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.17	20	-10	30	15.8	15.9	-0.09	15.6	13.2	2.44
Caron Butler	73	73	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.25	13	-3	16	15.8	15.9	-0.01	15.4	13.2	2.22
Jason Terry	67	65	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.30	8	2	6	15.9	15.7	0.26	14.3	16.5	-2.22
Jason Kidd	76	76	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.27	8	2	6	16.1	14.9	1.12	15.4	12.9	2.45
Shawn Marion	65	66	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	5	0	16.2	15.0	1.18	14.9	15.0	-0.13
Dirk Nowitzki	74	73	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.07	4	6	-2	15.9	15.6	0.26	15.3	13.7	1.52
Jose Juan Barea	18	17	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.07	2	8	-6	14.9	16.1	-1.12	12.9	15.4	-2.45
Eduardo Najera	28	27	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.07	-10	20	-30	14.7	16.3	-1.57	12.8	15.8	-3.00

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Barnes	59	60	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.09	4	-14	18	14.9	14.9	0.01	15.9	15.7	0.23
Rashard Lewis	72	73	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.16	6	-16	22	15.0	14.9	0.05	15.8	15.9	-0.07
Marcin Gortat	12	11	-0.01	-0.48	0.47	0.07	-3	-7	4	12.8	15.3	-2.43	14.4	16.0	-1.68
Jameer Nelson	63	65	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-11	12	15.1	14.7	0.41	16.1	15.2	0.93
Vince Carter	74	74	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-9	8	15.0	14.8	0.13	15.3	17.8	-2.48
JJ Redick	21	22	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	0	-10	15.0	14.9	0.13	16.4	15.7	0.67
Jason Williams	30	29	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	1	-12	14.7	15.1	-0.41	15.2	16.1	-0.93
Dwight Howard	81	83	-0.48	-0.01	-0.47	-0.28	-7	-3	-4	15.3	12.8	2.43	16.0	14.4	1.68
Mickael Pietrus	32	32	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.13	-13	3	-16	14.8	15.0	-0.20	16.6	15.5	1.08
Ryan Anderson	21	21	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	6	-22	14.9	15.0	-0.05	15.9	15.8	0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.66,0.57,0.29,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.27,0.14,0.16,0.14,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 100, LAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.45,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.52,0.34,0.33,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.1,0,0,0,0	91.8%
MIL 105, NJN 99	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.74,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.5,0.43,0.32,0.33,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.14,0.07,0.03,0,0	91.3%
UTA 102, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.74,0.65,0.78,0.77,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.12,0.06,0.02,0	91.1%