NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	81		Excitement	4.9 [831]		MVP	Luc Mbah a Moute (MIL): +14.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	93		Comeback	1.2 [1068]		LVP	Troy Murphy (IND): -9.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
T.J. Ford	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.01	11	83%	0.19	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	9	52%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
A.J. Price	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	47%	0.02	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Travis Diener	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Dahntay Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	14	47%	-0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Rush	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	31%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	0.03	7	71%	0.02	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	8	35%	-0.02	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.15	0.03	0.03	9	82%	0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	15	64%	0.11	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	11	58%	0.08	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	50%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Carlos Delfino	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	13	57%	0.06	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	31%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	10	23%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	26.9	9.8	27.4	2.4	25.6	119.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +11.0%

IND -0.9%

MIL +11.4%

MIL +25.2%

MIL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIL	NBA	IND	MIL	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.3	88.0	100.0	106.0
season	14.2	15.5		102.2	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.1		101.8	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.5	13.2	15.3	15.7	14.9
MIL	14.5	16.2	16.0	18.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Diener	5	5	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.03	-1	-11	10	15.0	14.9	0.11	14.6	16.3	-1.73
A.J. Price	43	44	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.15	3	-15	18	13.5	16.1	-2.63	16.8	15.7	1.15
Dahntay Jones	34	34	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.14	1	-13	14	14.8	14.9	-0.11	15.1	16.9	-1.81
Mike Dunleavy	54	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-8	4	14.3	15.7	-1.35	16.1	16.4	-0.21
T.J. Ford	49	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-4	-4	16.1	13.5	2.55	15.9	16.6	-0.67
Roy Hibbert	48	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.09	-8	-4	-4	15.0	14.8	0.18	16.7	15.7	0.92
Troy Murphy	68	69	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	0	-12	14.8	15.1	-0.26	16.1	16.6	-0.47
Brandon Rush	78	80	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	0	-12	15.1	13.6	1.56	16.1	16.8	-0.62
Danny Granger	81	81	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.05	-19	7	-26	15.1	13.5	1.63	16.7	13.3	3.33

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Delfino	69	67	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.01	20	-8	28	16.2	16.3	-0.07	15.6	13.0	2.60
Brandon Jennings	59	58	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.00	20	-8	28	17.0	14.9	2.09	15.4	13.9	1.51
Andrew Bogut	65	64	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.05	16	-4	20	17.3	13.8	3.46	15.1	14.4	0.67
Jerry Stackhouse	57	57	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	4	4	16.2	16.3	-0.16	15.1	14.6	0.47
Charlie Bell	66	66	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	11	-10	15.9	17.1	-1.18	14.2	16.7	-2.56
Luc Mbah a Moute	62	60	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.12	1	11	-10	15.8	17.2	-1.44	14.7	15.3	-0.60
Hakim Warrick	7	7	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	10	-8	14.3	16.4	-2.11	14.1	15.0	-0.81
Luke Ridnour	34	34	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.15	-8	20	-28	14.9	17.0	-2.09	13.9	15.4	-1.51
Ersan Ilyasova	25	26	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	17	-22	14.4	16.9	-2.51	14.0	15.2	-1.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.84,0.88,0.78,0.7,0.77,0.71,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.87,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.77,0.86,0.85,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 83, HOU 99	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.81,0.78,0.77,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.67,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.74,0.67,0.8,0.74,0.87,0.86,0.8,0.85,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.93,0.98,1,1,1	94.4%
LAL 93, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.72,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.92,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.3%
VAN 89, ORL 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.83,0.77,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.98,1	94.2%