NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	9.1 [105]		MVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): +77.3%
Sacramento Kings	102		Comeback	6.8 [162]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -24.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.43	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.43	0.10	0.30	-0.03	20	59%	0.45	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.06
Kenyon Martin	0.22	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.22	0.04	0.16	-0.02	17	54%	0.25	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.12,0.12,0.11	-0.09	0.16	-0.03	21	43%	0.24	4	-0.14	4	50%	-0.04
Chris Andersen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	100%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	6	61%	0.09	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	3	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	42%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Nene	-0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.25	-0.04	-0.20	0.01	9	44%	-0.03	2	-0.22	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.77	0.77	0.14	0.67	0.04	15	71%	0.86	3	-0.08	8	75%	0.09
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.14,0.16,0.16	0.16	-0.02	0.18	-0.00	14	48%	0.20	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15	0.15	0.02	0.11	-0.01	7	58%	0.16	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.04
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.08,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.01	10	85%	0.22	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	-0.00	-0.01	7	86%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	0.00	9	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	8	28%	-0.05	3	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.6	28.0	14.8	29.5	1.7	40.6	141.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +23.8%

SAC +14.8%

DEN -5.2%

SAC +12.2%

SAC +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	15.0	16.5	15.3	108.7	112.1	106.0
season	14.4	15.2		110.3	103.7
opponent	15.0	15.5		108.5	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.6	13.7	16.7	13.9	15.0
SAC	15.7	17.6	16.0	16.8	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	46	45	0.41	-0.91	1.32	0.14	9	-11	20	14.6	15.3	-0.74	16.6	16.5	0.06
Chris Andersen	44	43	0.27	-0.77	1.05	0.13	5	-7	12	14.3	15.5	-1.22	16.2	16.9	-0.69
Joey Graham	36	36	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	5	-12	16.1	14.2	1.90	15.5	17.2	-1.65
J.R. Smith	69	69	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.44	6	-8	14	14.4	16.5	-2.03	17.2	14.4	2.85
Kenyon Martin	70	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.47	2	-4	6	15.3	13.8	1.56	17.0	15.0	2.05
Chauncey Billups	76	73	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.48	-4	2	-6	15.2	13.7	1.54	16.2	17.8	-1.63
Nene	70	69	-0.86	0.36	-1.22	-0.54	-11	9	-20	15.0	14.9	0.12	16.3	17.3	-1.04
Arron Afflalo	49	50	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.58	-10	8	-18	14.8	15.2	-0.43	16.7	16.3	0.47

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omri Casspi	68	69	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.52	9	-7	16	16.1	17.7	-1.62	15.3	14.0	1.28
Tyreke Evans	78	80	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.45	6	-4	10	16.2	18.6	-2.44	15.4	12.0	3.40
Beno Udrih	59	59	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.34	6	-4	10	16.8	16.1	0.72	14.9	15.0	-0.12
Spencer Hawes	48	52	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.46	-1	3	-4	16.3	16.8	-0.50	14.5	15.6	-1.09
Jason Thompson	42	40	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	-5	12	15.9	17.1	-1.24	16.3	13.9	2.47
Ime Udoka	46	47	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.27	-7	9	-16	16.7	16.4	0.30	13.7	16.3	-2.56
Kenny Thomas	9	9	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.05	3	-1	4	17.3	16.4	0.89	15.4	14.9	0.54
Sergio Rodriguez	14	13	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	5	-8	18.6	16.2	2.42	13.6	15.2	-1.56
Jon Brockman	72	73	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.10	-3	5	-8	16.7	16.0	0.67	14.8	15.4	-0.59
Andres Nocioni	20	19	-0.33	0.83	-1.17	-0.04	-10	12	-22	17.6	16.2	1.37	14.1	15.2	-1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.28,0.24,0.27,0.35,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.18,0.33,0.27,0.17,0.2,0.34,0.69,0.64,0.23,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 95, SAC 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.37,0.32,0.33,0.32,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.24,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.3,0.34,0.21,0.17,0.27,0.26,0.15,0.33,0.62,0.37,0.32,0.85,1	91.0%
ATL 91, BOS 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.4,0.55,0.63,0.43,0.58,1	90.2%
BOS 115, PHI 118	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.37,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.34,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.46,0.31,0.54,0.57,0.58,1	90.1%