NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	93		Excitement	8.2 [201]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +21.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	96		Comeback	5.8 [275]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -28.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brad Miller	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.10	0.00	6	69%	0.17	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
John Salmons	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	8	56%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Joakim Noah	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.01	10	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	0.00	4	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
James Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	10	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.06
Taj Gibson	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	6	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.15	-0.04	-0.11	0.01	10	43%	-0.13	1	-0.03	10	50%	-0.04
Derrick Rose	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24,-0.2,-0.29	-0.04	-0.23	0.02	25	44%	-0.09	2	-0.20	7	71%	-0.05

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.12	0.02	16	60%	0.22	0	0.00	8	75%	0.03
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.05	0.13	-0.01	23	51%	0.22	1	-0.04	7	71%	0.01
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	61%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	12	54%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	5	83%	0.14	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	3	12%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25	-0.25	-0.16	-0.09	-0.01	9	24%	-0.13	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.7	28.0	15.0	24.0	2.4	45.3	140.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +18.4%

MIL +11.6%

MIL +9.3%

MIL +4.2%

MIL +6.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIL	NBA	CHI	MIL	NBA
this game	13.8	17.0	15.3	100.0	102.1	106.0
season	14.7	15.5		101.9	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.7		101.8	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.6	14.6	11.9	14.2	13.8
MIL	16.7	17.3	18.1	15.8	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	18	18	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.01	6	-9	15	12.9	14.0	-1.14	19.0	16.5	2.50
Taj Gibson	46	45	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.02	4	-7	11	13.7	13.9	-0.13	17.3	16.7	0.68
John Salmons	45	46	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.06	6	-9	15	13.7	13.9	-0.27	17.0	17.0	0.04
Brad Miller	40	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.28	2	-5	7	12.5	14.8	-2.29	17.2	16.8	0.34
Joakim Noah	53	53	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	2	-7	14.8	12.5	2.29	16.8	17.2	-0.34
Kirk Hinrich	64	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	-1	-1	13.2	15.2	-1.98	17.1	16.8	0.32
Tyrus Thomas	54	55	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.33	-7	4	-11	15.0	12.2	2.85	17.1	16.9	0.18
Luol Deng	70	72	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.39	-10	7	-17	13.8	13.9	-0.08	16.8	17.6	-0.80
Derrick Rose	75	75	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.45	-9	6	-15	13.8	13.7	0.17	16.3	19.6	-3.32

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Redd	72	70	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.47	7	-4	11	16.8	17.6	-0.80	13.2	15.6	-2.34
Hakim Warrick	43	43	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.53	3	0	3	16.2	17.7	-1.50	13.9	13.8	0.10
Brandon Jennings	75	76	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.37	8	-5	13	17.0	17.0	-0.03	13.9	13.2	0.77
Andrew Bogut	83	82	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	1	1	17.1	15.9	1.21	13.5	15.9	-2.38
Charlie Bell	41	42	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.39	0	3	-3	16.8	17.1	-0.27	13.3	14.2	-0.95
Luc Mbah a Moute	44	42	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.14	8	-5	13	16.4	17.5	-1.11	14.1	13.6	0.53
Kurt Thomas	11	11	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	2	-1	15.9	17.1	-1.21	15.9	13.5	2.38
Carlos Delfino	20	20	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.14	-9	12	-21	17.8	16.8	1.04	13.5	13.9	-0.33
Ersan Ilyasova	51	50	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.12	0	3	-3	17.7	16.2	1.50	13.8	13.9	-0.10
Luke Ridnour	30	29	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.01	-5	8	-13	18.0	16.5	1.45	15.3	13.1	2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.39,0.68,0.96,0.89,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 105, VAN 110	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.78,0.87,1	91.0%
ATL 84, HOU 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.63,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.21,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.53,0.47,0.84,0.99,1,1	90.6%
DET 100, MIN 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.7,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.46,0.54,0.81,0.93,0.91,0.96,1	90.6%