NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	84		Excitement	7.0 [429]		MVP	Metta World Peace (HOU): +23.0%
Houston Rockets	92		Comeback	5.6 [304]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -13.5%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.09	0.00	10	70%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	-0.01	13	56%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Marvin Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.02	0.02	9	61%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.11,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,0,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.01	19	52%	0.10	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	5	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	6	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.03	19	32%	-0.04	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.10	0.14	0.01	10	68%	0.26	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.01
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.03	6	50%	0.07	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	6	83%	0.11	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	10	55%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.02	-0.04	15	37%	0.05	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.04
Yao Ming	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	20	55%	0.17	5	-0.24	4	50%	-0.05
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.02	-0.05	9	27%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	1.8	26.4	16.0	25.9	2.5	30.5	126.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +19.1%

HOU +19.8%

HOU +29.7%

ATL -24.5%

HOU +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	HOU	NBA	ATL	HOU	NBA
this game	16.1	15.6	15.5	93.3	100.0	106.4
season	15.8	16.3		106.7	105.9
opponent	15.2	16.1		102.7	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.0	15.4	17.3	15.7	16.1
HOU	14.6	15.9	17.0	15.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronald Murray	32	32	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.03	7	-15	22	16.2	16.0	0.12	18.2	14.2	4.05
Maurice Evans	40	40	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.01	4	-12	16	16.1	16.0	0.13	17.0	14.5	2.56
Josh Smith	67	69	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.05	3	-11	14	16.2	15.8	0.40	15.5	15.8	-0.28
Solomon Jones	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-10	12	9.5	16.2	-6.73	13.5	15.6	-2.12
Mario West	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-10	12	9.5	16.2	-6.73	13.5	15.6	-2.12
Acie Law	19	19	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.08	0	-8	8	13.5	16.8	-3.30	16.8	15.3	1.53
Zaza Pachulia	40	42	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.35	-4	-4	0	14.8	17.1	-2.30	15.5	15.7	-0.23
Joe Johnson	76	79	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.19	-10	2	-12	16.3	14.9	1.36	15.4	16.5	-1.03
Al Horford	58	58	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.05	-16	8	-24	17.4	13.7	3.66	15.2	16.1	-0.91
Mike Bibby	60	63	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.31	-11	3	-14	16.4	15.4	1.07	14.4	18.1	-3.69
Marvin Williams	54	54	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.19	-17	9	-26	16.1	16.0	0.08	14.8	16.7	-1.93

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Yao Ming	64	63	0.81	-0.31	1.13	0.20	21	-13	34	14.7	17.6	-2.87	16.6	14.8	1.80
Rafer Alston	74	72	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.30	16	-8	24	15.0	18.1	-3.15	16.1	15.9	0.17
Metta World Peace	76	74	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.36	13	-5	18	15.0	18.5	-3.54	16.1	15.9	0.25
Shane Battier	68	66	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.10	17	-9	26	15.0	17.2	-2.26	16.3	15.3	1.02
Carl Landry	43	41	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.39	5	3	2	16.0	15.2	0.71	15.1	16.9	-1.71
Charles Hayes	15	14	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.11	-6	14	-20	16.9	15.3	1.62	14.9	16.3	-1.36
Luis Scola	62	62	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	-0.17	-4	12	-16	15.9	14.9	0.95	16.4	15.4	1.05
Aaron Brooks	21	20	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.01	-10	18	-28	18.7	14.6	4.07	15.3	16.3	-1.00
Von Wafer	37	38	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	0.05	-12	20	-32	17.4	14.4	3.01	15.9	16.2	-0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.63,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.21,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.35,0.53,0.47,0.84,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 93, MIL 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.39,0.68,0.96,0.89,0.85,1	90.6%
HOU 105, VAN 110	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.69,0.71,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.69,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.78,0.87,1	90.5%
DET 100, MIN 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.7,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.21,0.46,0.54,0.81,0.93,0.91,0.96,1	89.9%