NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	95		Excitement	6.4 [505]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): +15.1%
Toronto Raptors	102		Comeback	1.3 [858]		LVP	Rodney Stuckey (DET): -16.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jonas Jerebko	0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	-0.00	10	70%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.05	0.01	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	8	25%	-0.15
Will Bynum	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Austin Daye	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Ben Gordon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	15	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Jason Maxiell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	20	35%	-0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	7	44%	0.01	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Rodney Stuckey	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16	-0.05	-0.09	0.02	14	44%	-0.10	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	-0.00	0.13	-0.02	13	55%	0.22	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	3	70%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	8	58%	0.07	1	-0.01	8	75%	-0.02
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	3	69%	0.07	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.02
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.04	9	71%	0.14	3	-0.11	6	100%	0.02
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.03	14	60%	0.14	4	-0.14	14	64%	0.00
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.00	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.3	36.5	17.5	30.0	2.8	50.1	168.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +55.9%

TOR +15.8%

DET -18.8%

DET -8.4%

TOR +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	TOR	NBA	DET	TOR	NBA
this game	18.3	15.0	15.3	109.2	118.6	106.0
season	16.8	15.0		104.0	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.2		111.5	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	21.9	17.3	17.2	17.2	18.3
TOR	14.1	14.0	17.1	14.8	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	49	52	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-11	15	19.7	16.5	3.23	15.6	13.9	1.72
Austin Daye	1	0	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.01	0	-7	7	3.0	18.5	-15.50	0.0	15.0	-14.95
Jason Maxiell	9	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-4	1	15.1	18.7	-3.58	16.0	14.8	1.15
Tayshaun Prince	49	49	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.28	6	-13	19	18.3	18.4	-0.13	14.7	15.3	-0.60
Ben Wallace	67	65	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-9	11	17.9	19.9	-2.05	14.9	15.0	-0.12
Will Bynum	26	25	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.02	-9	2	-11	20.0	17.6	2.39	14.8	15.0	-0.27
Charlie Villanueva	33	32	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	0	-7	19.5	17.6	1.82	15.3	14.7	0.62
Chris Wilcox	20	21	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.00	-9	2	-11	19.9	17.9	2.05	15.0	14.9	0.12
Rodney Stuckey	67	68	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-4	1	18.0	19.4	-1.40	14.8	15.6	-0.83
Ben Gordon	62	61	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.23	-8	1	-9	17.0	21.6	-4.66	15.1	14.5	0.61
Richard Hamilton	52	49	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.25	-8	1	-9	18.3	18.3	0.06	14.2	16.0	-1.79

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrea Bargnani	72	73	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.14	11	-4	15	15.4	12.6	2.76	19.2	14.0	5.15
Chris Bosh	70	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.26	5	2	3	15.1	14.2	0.94	18.2	18.7	-0.43
Sonny Weems	22	22	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	3	1	14.5	15.1	-0.61	15.2	19.4	-4.14
Jarrett Jack	65	64	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.28	1	6	-5	15.3	13.9	1.39	18.1	18.9	-0.74
Hedo Turkoglu	60	60	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	4	-1	15.3	14.0	1.31	18.2	18.6	-0.39
Marco Belinelli	36	36	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.03	8	-1	9	14.4	15.4	-1.02	19.1	17.8	1.30
Marcus Banks	21	23	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	1	5	13.9	15.3	-1.39	18.9	18.1	0.74
Antoine Wright	31	34	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	4	-1	13.6	15.7	-2.05	15.9	19.9	-3.96
Amir Johnson	26	25	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.12	1	6	-5	15.3	14.8	0.56	18.9	18.1	0.78
Pops Mensah-Bonsu	1	2	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	9	-11	2.0	15.1	-13.11	15.0	18.4	-3.40
DeMar DeRozan	26	27	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.07	-5	12	-17	15.2	14.8	0.34	20.9	17.2	3.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.71,0.66,0.77,0.71,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.81,0.89,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 82, LAC 90	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.77,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.85,0.94,0.94,0.98,1	93.1%
SAC 92, LAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.83,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	92.8%
ORL 78, ATL 83	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.74,0.83,0.83,0.74,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.75,0.83,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.53,0.78,0.94,0.96,1	92.6%