NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	85		Excitement	7.3 [344]		MVP	Jose Juan Barea (DAL): +19.5%
Dallas Mavericks	81		Comeback	3.9 [177]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -24.9%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.01	16	54%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Steve Blake	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	7	43%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.01	8	50%	0.08	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02	0.01	0.03	0.02	11	46%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Joel Przybilla	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Ayres	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.15,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	19	50%	0.13	2	-0.15	8	100%	0.06
Martell Webster	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	25%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.10	0.10	-0.00	16	67%	0.28	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.2,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.02	0.01	13	82%	0.30	6	-0.21	7	71%	-0.02
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	7	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	7	36%	-0.06	1	-0.02	8	25%	-0.10
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.06	-0.01	7	0%	-0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.13,-0.25	-0.25	-0.11	-0.14	-0.01	13	27%	-0.22	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.7	28.6	17.4	26.9	1.8	36.3	138.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +24.5%

POR +11.9%

POR +14.4%

POR +1.9%

DAL -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DAL	NBA	POR	DAL	NBA
this game	16.6	14.8	15.3	92.4	89.0	106.0
season	16.7	15.2		108.8	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.6		104.6	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.5	16.3	16.1	16.6	16.6
DAL	12.5	15.0	15.2	16.9	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Miller	64	62	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.43	14	-10	24	17.1	15.5	1.57	15.2	14.1	1.12
Juwan Howard	64	65	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.39	7	-3	10	16.4	17.2	-0.84	15.4	13.4	2.03
LaMarcus Aldridge	84	84	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.33	8	-4	12	17.0	13.2	3.70	15.1	12.0	3.07
Brandon Roy	80	78	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.42	4	0	4	16.5	17.6	-1.10	14.6	16.3	-1.72
Steve Blake	54	52	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.41	3	1	2	16.4	17.0	-0.63	15.2	14.4	0.79
Jerryd Bayless	50	50	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.41	1	3	-2	16.0	17.4	-1.38	15.3	14.3	0.94
Martell Webster	52	54	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.11	5	-1	6	17.1	16.1	0.98	14.6	15.1	-0.46
Joel Przybilla	18	17	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.04	-3	7	-10	18.4	16.2	2.26	12.5	15.4	-2.91
Anthony Tolliver	8	7	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.05	-4	8	-12	13.2	17.0	-3.70	12.0	15.1	-3.07
Jeff Ayres	7	6	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.03	-6	10	-16	17.1	16.6	0.55	18.7	14.6	4.10

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	14	13	0.13	-0.63	0.76	0.01	4	-8	12	13.6	15.1	-1.41	13.5	17.2	-3.69
Erick Dampier	59	61	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.18	8	-12	20	14.2	15.9	-1.70	17.1	15.8	1.29
Shawn Marion	44	47	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.14	-1	-3	2	16.7	13.1	3.53	16.8	16.4	0.41
Jose Juan Barea	69	68	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.44	8	-12	20	15.1	14.0	1.04	16.1	18.2	-2.08
Dirk Nowitzki	77	78	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.23	-5	1	-6	14.9	14.2	0.73	17.0	14.5	2.51
Jason Kidd	67	70	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.40	0	-4	4	14.7	15.1	-0.39	17.2	14.7	2.56
Drew Gooden	28	28	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.14	-11	7	-18	15.3	14.6	0.70	15.5	17.1	-1.63
Josh Howard	45	42	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.18	-12	8	-20	13.6	16.1	-2.53	16.0	17.1	-1.07
Jason Terry	53	54	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.19	-13	9	-22	14.6	15.2	-0.55	16.8	16.4	0.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.55,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.25,0.33,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.61,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.53,0.4,0.34,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 99, TOR 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.87,0.89,0.75,0.67,0.53,0.64,0.6,0.47,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.08,0	91.2%
ORL 97, NYK 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.33,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.58,0.41,0.47,0.38,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.08,0	90.9%
BOS 89, DET 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.39,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.01,0	90.5%