NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	102		Excitement	7.2 [365]		MVP	Brandon Roy (POR): +49.7%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	4.5 [161]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -17.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Roy	0.50	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.35,0.35,0.47,0.5	0.23	0.28	0.01	14	97%	0.58	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.24	0.12	0.12	0.00	10	65%	0.24	0	0.00	6	83%	0.04
Martell Webster	0.20	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.13	0.07	0.01	7	83%	0.20	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Jerryd Bayless	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	6	50%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	23	47%	0.02	1	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	57%	0.05	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Juwan Howard	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	5	30%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.4,0.4,0.41	0.41	0.28	0.17	0.04	7	137%	0.41	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.01	13	57%	0.17	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.00	10	55%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.00	3	43%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.07	-0.13	-0.02	31	44%	-0.08	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.0	29.0	14.7	26.0	2.0	32.0	128.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +26.3%

POR +13.2%

POR +23.6%

MIA -11.0%

MIA -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIA	NBA	POR	MIA	NBA
this game	17.5	16.8	15.3	120.0	114.5	106.0
season	16.7	16.2		108.8	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.6		102.8	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.1	18.1	17.7	17.0	17.5
MIA	17.1	17.0	15.8	17.3	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Martell Webster	61	61	1.07	-0.57	1.64	0.37	24	-17	41	16.5	20.0	-3.58	16.6	17.5	-0.88
Andre Miller	56	55	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.46	15	-8	23	17.3	17.7	-0.38	15.9	18.5	-2.61
Joel Przybilla	59	58	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.35	15	-8	23	18.4	15.4	3.01	16.9	16.6	0.35
LaMarcus Aldridge	76	75	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.27	11	-4	15	16.9	22.0	-5.07	16.6	18.4	-1.73
Brandon Roy	73	71	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	2	3	17.8	15.3	2.49	16.4	19.5	-3.15
Anthony Tolliver	2	2	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	11	-15	20.0	17.4	2.59	19.5	16.7	2.76
Juwan Howard	31	29	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.02	-10	17	-27	18.0	17.2	0.78	17.4	16.5	0.93
Jerryd Bayless	26	25	-0.42	0.93	-1.35	-0.19	-8	15	-23	18.0	17.3	0.71	19.6	15.6	3.94
Steve Blake	41	39	-0.55	1.05	-1.61	-0.17	-13	20	-33	17.4	17.5	-0.16	17.1	16.6	0.46

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Jones	15	14	0.36	-0.86	1.21	0.06	10	-17	27	17.1	16.7	0.32	20.6	16.9	3.71
Michael Beasley	51	52	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.16	-2	-5	3	18.1	14.8	3.25	17.7	17.2	0.52
Joel Anthony	12	12	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.08	-2	-5	3	19.5	16.4	3.15	15.3	17.8	-2.49
Carlos Arroyo	25	26	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-6	5	16.8	16.8	-0.07	17.4	17.5	-0.07
Mario Chalmers	42	42	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-6	5	19.0	14.6	4.34	18.2	16.7	1.47
Dorell Wright	37	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-5	3	17.0	16.7	0.35	17.0	17.9	-0.90
Udonis Haslem	53	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.32	-5	-2	-3	17.3	16.0	1.26	17.6	17.3	0.33
Dwyane Wade	67	70	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.41	-8	1	-9	15.9	20.8	-4.96	17.4	17.8	-0.40
Jermaine O'Neal	54	56	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.47	-10	3	-13	15.2	19.7	-4.48	17.2	17.9	-0.70
Quentin Richardson	59	61	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.47	-14	7	-21	15.6	19.8	-4.20	17.0	18.6	-1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.32,0.25,0.29,0.4,0.52,0.42,0.49,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.68,0.55,0.47,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 90, NYK 89	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.81,0.67,0.75,0.63,0.41,0.26,0	91.5%
LAL 101, SAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.64,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.46,0.56,0.44,0.45,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.62,0.68,0.79,0.71,0.78,0.52,0.63,0.55,0.15,0	91.4%
WAS 86, DAL 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.52,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.47,0.67,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.78,0.86,0.72,0.45,0.31,0	90.8%