NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	96		Excitement	5.6 [678]		MVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): +25.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	102		Comeback	1.1 [611]		LVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): -25.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.05	0.04	26	59%	0.17	5	-0.09	17	82%	0.02
Nene	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.12	-0.02	0.04	13	66%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	11	50%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.02	8	33%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.14	-0.12	-0.00	12	27%	-0.21	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.25,0.25,0.26	0.26	0.17	0.14	0.05	21	68%	0.32	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.04
Hasheem Thabeet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.02	16	54%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	9	64%	0.09	5	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	10	32%	-0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	11	42%	-0.08	4	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.12	-0.09	0.01	19	29%	-0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.5	28.2	16.6	27.6	2.3	34.5	136.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +26.2%

DEN -6.2%

MEM +30.2%

MEM +0.1%

DEN -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	14.3	15.7	15.3	100.0	106.2	106.0
season	14.4	15.4		110.3	106.8
opponent	15.0	15.5		108.4	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.2	13.2	13.1	14.6	14.3
MEM	12.6	15.0	15.7	20.6	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	44	42	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-9	12	13.4	15.1	-1.67	16.9	14.8	2.17
Anthony Carter	67	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.34	4	-10	14	13.8	15.4	-1.66	16.1	14.7	1.35
Nene	81	81	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.37	5	-11	16	14.5	13.4	1.06	16.0	14.0	2.02
Arron Afflalo	42	43	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.02	-9	3	-12	15.3	13.5	1.72	14.1	17.0	-2.97
Ty Lawson	36	34	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	5	-16	15.1	13.8	1.31	15.5	15.8	-0.37
J.R. Smith	57	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-5	4	14.0	14.8	-0.80	16.9	14.1	2.76
Carmelo Anthony	86	86	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.36	-1	-5	4	14.1	16.1	-2.02	15.6	16.9	-1.33
Kenyon Martin	67	69	-0.74	0.24	-0.99	-0.16	-20	14	-34	14.7	13.4	1.31	14.6	18.6	-3.96

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
O.J. Mayo	86	88	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.33	5	1	4	15.9	14.0	1.91	14.0	17.2	-3.23
Rudy Gay	78	76	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.24	7	-1	8	15.6	16.3	-0.70	14.6	13.2	1.38
Marc Gasol	79	77	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.27	5	1	4	15.6	16.0	-0.35	14.5	13.6	0.82
Zach Randolph	86	88	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.42	-2	8	-10	15.9	13.7	2.24	13.9	18.9	-5.00
Mike Conley	66	65	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.30	1	5	-4	16.1	14.8	1.27	14.4	14.1	0.24
Hasheem Thabeet	27	27	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.04	9	-3	12	15.1	15.9	-0.78	15.2	13.9	1.24
Jamaal Tinsley	30	31	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	1	4	14.8	16.1	-1.27	14.1	14.4	-0.24
Sam Young	28	28	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.08	0	6	-6	15.5	15.8	-0.34	14.4	14.3	0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.86,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.85,0.94,0.9,0.85,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.85,0.78,0.74,0.71,0.91,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 85, SEA 90	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.81,0.78,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.84,0.85,0.94,0.87,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.99,0.98,1	94.5%
NJN 94, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.83,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.89,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.79,0.79,0.68,0.79,0.79,0.84,0.72,0.85,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.99,1	93.8%
LAC 91, POR 100	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.9,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.89,0.97,0.92,1	93.7%