NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	3.2 [1134]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +8.8%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	1.2 [1189]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -11.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Dorell Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.00	0.03	5	70%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
James Jones	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	46%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Daequan Cook	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	0.00	0.05	4	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	42%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.02	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	19	40%	-0.02	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	4	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	0.05	20	47%	-0.06	4	-0.06	13	69%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.01	-0.05	11	57%	0.12	3	-0.03	6	50%	-0.04
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	13	50%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	0.00	0.04	3	90%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.13	0.00	0.09	9	94%	0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	60%	0.02	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.00	0.05	5	62%	0.01	0	0.00	11	91%	0.02
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	17	51%	0.02	4	-0.03	9	89%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.05	8	57%	0.00	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	3.4	37.6	19.7	32.8	1.7	26.6	152.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +19.5%

DEN +19.3%

DEN +2.6%

DEN +7.5%

DEN +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.4	16.1	15.3	104.3	125.3	106.0
season	16.2	14.4		104.4	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.4		106.4	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	16.1	14.7	15.0	15.4
DEN	14.9	14.6	16.6	18.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	14	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.32	11	-29	40	14.7	15.5	-0.80	21.7	15.1	6.65
Daequan Cook	14	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.32	11	-29	40	14.7	15.5	-0.80	21.7	15.1	6.65
Dorell Wright	39	38	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.25	4	-22	26	15.1	15.6	-0.59	15.7	16.4	-0.69
Carlos Arroyo	30	30	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.15	0	-18	18	16.7	14.7	1.99	16.5	15.9	0.57
Joel Anthony	13	12	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.08	-8	-10	2	18.9	14.8	4.11	12.7	16.6	-3.84
Mario Chalmers	32	32	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.20	-13	-5	-8	15.7	15.2	0.50	16.7	15.7	0.97
James Jones	29	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-17	16	14.7	15.7	-0.97	17.5	15.5	1.99
Jermaine O'Neal	48	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	-2	-14	15.2	15.6	-0.34	16.5	15.7	0.78
Udonis Haslem	43	43	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.22	-19	1	-20	15.9	15.0	0.92	14.1	17.9	-3.78
Quentin Richardson	59	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.16	-17	-1	-16	14.9	16.2	-1.33	16.0	16.3	-0.30
Michael Beasley	69	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.20	-19	1	-20	15.5	15.0	0.52	15.2	18.8	-3.60
Dwyane Wade	70	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.32	-23	5	-28	14.8	17.2	-2.35	15.5	17.7	-2.21

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	52	51	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.09	18	0	18	15.7	16.7	-1.01	16.2	14.4	1.85
J.R. Smith	57	56	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.10	14	4	10	15.7	16.8	-1.13	15.3	15.6	-0.32
Nene	54	55	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.30	20	-2	22	15.0	17.6	-2.63	15.6	15.1	0.47
Carmelo Anthony	65	67	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.36	22	-4	26	15.2	18.3	-3.16	15.3	15.5	-0.18
Kenyon Martin	55	56	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.23	17	1	16	15.3	17.2	-1.92	15.0	16.0	-0.95
Ty Lawson	39	40	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.11	5	13	-8	15.8	16.3	-0.51	16.3	14.7	1.61
Chauncey Billups	52	52	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.14	13	5	8	16.3	15.8	0.51	14.7	16.3	-1.61
Joey Graham	19	19	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	19	-20	17.3	15.8	1.55	14.9	15.5	-0.63
Arron Afflalo	41	42	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	17	-16	17.5	14.9	2.64	15.9	15.0	0.86
Malik Allen	14	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.32	-11	29	-40	21.7	15.1	6.65	14.7	15.5	-0.80
Johan Petro	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	26	-34	22.3	15.6	6.71	12.6	15.7	-3.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.69,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.86,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 87, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.98,0.99,0.94,1,1	97.4%
PHI 79, BOS 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
LAC 96, POR 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.96,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%