NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	4.5 [898]		MVP	Rasual Butler (LAC): +27.5%
Los Angeles Clippers	106		Comeback	2.9 [87]		LVP	Malik Allen (DEN): -6.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.01	0.03	4	100%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.01	8	64%	0.06	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.13	-0.02	0.09	20	70%	0.14	6	-0.12	13	92%	0.05
Nene	0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	14	56%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Joey Graham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	13	35%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	36%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Malik Allen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.19	0.07	-0.02	15	73%	0.29	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.02
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.01	5	80%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Thornton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	10	64%	0.12	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.01
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.01	11	46%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Novak	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mardy Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	5	67%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Chris Kaman	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	10	46%	0.02	4	-0.07	8	62%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.0	36.5	17.8	34.8	3.0	39.2	160.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +47.2%

DEN -2.7%

LAC +2.6%

LAC +3.3%

DEN -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAC	NBA	DEN	LAC	NBA
this game	13.5	17.2	15.3	105.3	112.8	106.0
season	14.4	15.5		110.3	101.9
opponent	15.2	15.5		108.5	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.7	17.3	13.2	11.1	13.5
LAC	16.8	16.2	16.8	18.9	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joey Graham	21	21	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.27	13	-20	33	12.4	13.8	-1.40	18.5	16.8	1.68
Arron Afflalo	47	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	0	-7	14.4	12.5	1.87	15.8	18.5	-2.72
Chauncey Billups	62	62	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-4	1	13.1	14.1	-1.00	16.5	18.4	-1.92
Ty Lawson	32	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-3	-1	14.1	13.1	1.00	18.4	16.5	1.92
Nene	78	79	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-5	3	13.1	15.1	-2.00	17.2	16.9	0.28
Carmelo Anthony	84	85	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.36	1	-8	9	13.1	16.3	-3.17	17.2	16.9	0.31
Malik Allen	13	12	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.14	-18	11	-29	17.3	12.9	4.46	16.4	17.3	-0.86
Kenyon Martin	76	76	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.20	-7	0	-7	13.5	13.5	-0.04	16.9	18.4	-1.51
J.R. Smith	57	57	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.23	-8	1	-9	13.2	13.9	-0.70	18.2	15.5	2.73

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	65	65	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.27	6	1	5	17.7	16.0	1.69	13.5	13.3	0.18
Mardy Collins	43	42	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.08	11	-4	15	16.4	17.8	-1.43	13.9	13.1	0.75
DeAndre Jordan	24	25	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.10	17	-10	27	17.0	17.2	-0.17	15.8	12.6	3.18
Craig Smith	34	34	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.15	8	-1	9	17.6	16.9	0.75	14.9	12.6	2.26
Baron Davis	75	74	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	5	-3	16.9	18.4	-1.50	12.9	15.6	-2.77
Sebastian Telfair	19	20	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	2	3	18.4	16.9	1.50	15.6	12.9	2.77
Chris Kaman	69	69	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.25	-3	10	-13	17.1	17.4	-0.31	12.8	15.2	-2.36
Al Thornton	58	58	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.18	-1	8	-9	17.3	16.9	0.37	13.3	13.7	-0.41
Marcus Camby	59	59	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.28	-6	13	-19	17.3	16.9	0.45	12.3	15.4	-3.08
Ricky Davis	22	23	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.06	-2	9	-11	16.8	17.3	-0.52	13.0	13.6	-0.68
Steve Novak	2	1	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	9	-11	8.5	17.4	-8.86	17.0	13.4	3.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.83,0.65,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 90, ATL 108	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.7,0.8,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.91,0.88,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.88,0.84,0.76,0.83,0.92,0.99,1,1,1	93.9%
TOR 82, NYK 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.8,0.84,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.92,0.85,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.99,1	93.6%
UTA 87, BOS 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.93,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.98,1,0.99,1	93.2%