NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	94		Excitement	5.7 [653]		MVP	Anthony Morrow (GSW): +21.4%
Golden State Warriors	108		Comeback	3.0 [108]		LVP	Anthony Randolph (GSW): -17.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Oden	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.02	0.01	8	76%	0.13	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Rudy Fernandez	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.03	11	70%	0.17	4	-0.07	5	80%	-0.00
Dante Cunningham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Martell Webster	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	10	48%	0.01	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	-0.04	9	61%	0.08	7	-0.15	5	80%	-0.01
Steve Blake	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	9	30%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Roy	-0.15	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.07	0.03	17	45%	-0.05	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Morrow	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.16	0.04	-0.01	13	79%	0.23	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Chris Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	-0.00	-0.03	9	52%	0.05	1	0.00	5	80%	-0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	11	50%	0.05	3	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Mikki Moore	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	0.06	28	52%	0.04	4	-0.10	9	78%	0.01
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.01	15	44%	-0.02	6	-0.15	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.7	31.1	16.3	29.4	1.8	30.0	139.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +29.8%

POR -4.9%

GSW +4.2%

GSW +22.0%

POR -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	GSW	NBA	POR	GSW	NBA
this game	15.6	13.2	15.3	93.1	109.1	106.0
season	16.7	13.4		108.8	106.5
opponent	14.8	15.6		110.0	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	13.5	16.9	17.0	15.0	15.6
GSW	14.2	9.8	13.5	15.7	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Martell Webster	33	30	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.12	7	-21	28	11.5	17.6	-6.12	13.9	12.9	1.04
Dante Cunningham	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-20	26	6.1	16.3	-10.17	20.3	12.6	7.66
Jerryd Bayless	21	19	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.00	-5	-9	4	13.4	16.2	-2.75	14.5	12.8	1.68
Andre Miller	37	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.13	-10	-4	-6	17.1	14.7	2.42	12.5	13.6	-1.04
Joel Przybilla	47	44	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	-5	-4	15.6	15.6	-0.02	10.7	15.2	-4.52
Steve Blake	73	73	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.16	-3	-11	8	15.8	15.0	0.84	13.7	11.6	2.16
Greg Oden	44	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	-6	-2	17.7	13.9	3.80	14.3	12.2	2.14
Juwan Howard	29	28	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-3	-8	14.7	16.0	-1.33	10.4	14.3	-3.92
LaMarcus Aldridge	54	54	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	-3	-8	16.6	14.5	2.12	13.9	12.3	1.58
Brandon Roy	77	76	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.05	-16	2	-18	16.4	12.9	3.52	13.0	13.8	-0.85
Rudy Fernandez	83	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.17	-10	-4	-6	15.5	16.2	-0.68	13.2	13.2	-0.07

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	99	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.09	14	0	14	13.2	0.0	13.17	15.6	0.0	15.60
Stephen Curry	93	95	0.50	0.00	0.50	-0.03	18	-4	22	12.9	17.8	-4.96	16.2	6.5	9.68
Anthony Morrow	99	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.09	14	0	14	13.2	0.0	13.17	15.6	0.0	15.60
Vladimir Radmanovic	41	43	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.14	19	-5	24	12.1	13.9	-1.88	14.7	16.3	-1.54
Anthony Randolph	63	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	4	6	12.7	14.1	-1.43	15.2	16.3	-1.13
Chris Hunter	25	25	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.04	12	2	10	13.9	12.9	1.00	19.5	14.3	5.20
Corey Maggette	63	63	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.33	-12	26	-38	14.5	10.9	3.54	14.5	17.4	-2.87
Mikki Moore	12	11	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	19	-24	13.7	13.1	0.56	13.7	15.8	-2.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.59,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.69,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 85, CHA 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1	94.4%
POR 117, LAL 126	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.65,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.9%
TOR 105, HOU 114	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.28,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%