NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	106		Excitement	8.8 [141]		MVP	Ben Gordon (DET): +42.8%
Washington Wizards	103		Comeback	5.7 [144]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -16.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0.43	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.43	0.13	0.38	0.08	21	62%	0.50	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.04
Ben Wallace	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	2	71%	0.11	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.07
Will Bynum	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.05	0.01	13	57%	0.13	3	-0.07	9	89%	0.02
Jason Maxiell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jonas Jerebko	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DaJuan Summers	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	30%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Charlie Villanueva	-0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.02,0.02,-0.04	0.08	-0.13	-0.00	21	58%	0.02	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Rodney Stuckey	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	13	50%	0.00	4	-0.15	8	87%	0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.10	0.02	11	83%	0.29	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.05
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	14	50%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	13	45%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Dominic McGuire	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.03,-0.06	-0.06	0.06	-0.12	0.01	12	69%	0.07	4	-0.13	5	100%	0.04
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	8	48%	0.05	4	-0.18	7	71%	0.03
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.17	-0.17	0.00	-0.16	0.01	18	50%	-0.00	2	-0.16	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.6	33.2	16.4	27.3	2.5	45.4	151.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +37.1%

WAS -13.8%

WAS -0.8%

DET +26.5%

DET +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	WAS	NBA	DET	WAS	NBA
this game	16.0	14.7	15.3	114.0	108.4	106.0
season	16.8	15.7		104.0	102.6
opponent	15.3	15.2		107.9	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.3	16.8	16.8	14.2	16.0
WAS	15.7	15.9	13.9	13.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Bynum	64	64	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.58	4	-1	5	14.8	18.6	-3.74	14.2	15.7	-1.59
Ben Wallace	60	60	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.45	8	-5	13	16.1	15.8	0.25	14.9	14.3	0.66
Ben Gordon	83	85	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.45	3	0	3	15.4	20.8	-5.40	14.3	17.9	-3.61
Rodney Stuckey	86	87	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.34	3	0	3	16.4	11.0	5.38	15.0	11.6	3.33
Charlie Villanueva	72	75	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.18	8	-5	13	16.3	14.7	1.63	15.4	11.8	3.64
Austin Daye	10	12	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.09	9	-6	15	12.6	16.4	-3.79	13.6	14.8	-1.25
Jason Maxiell	29	29	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	2	-1	14.6	16.6	-2.02	15.0	14.5	0.47
DaJuan Summers	7	7	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	5	-7	20.7	15.6	5.12	14.0	14.7	-0.73
Kwame Brown	17	18	-0.30	0.80	-1.11	0.02	-11	14	-25	18.3	15.5	2.83	12.9	15.1	-2.20
Jonas Jerebko	37	38	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.12	-8	11	-19	17.5	14.9	2.59	14.9	14.5	0.41

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaVale McGee	4	4	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.02	0	-3	3	18.2	14.5	3.73	26.7	15.5	11.26
Mike Miller	65	66	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.07	1	-4	5	15.3	13.2	2.11	16.3	15.1	1.27
Dominic McGuire	3	2	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-1	-1	4.3	15.0	-10.68	0.0	16.3	-16.33
Fabricio Oberto	27	25	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	3	-9	15.1	14.5	0.61	14.5	16.5	-1.99
Earl Boykins	60	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.36	2	-5	7	14.8	14.4	0.43	15.3	17.3	-2.03
Brendan Haywood	76	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.43	4	-7	11	14.3	16.0	-1.66	16.2	15.3	0.90
Caron Butler	76	75	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-3	3	14.6	14.9	-0.28	16.7	13.1	3.62
DeShawn Stevenson	23	21	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.17	-7	4	-11	13.0	15.2	-2.27	14.8	16.3	-1.51
Gilbert Arenas	82	79	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.43	0	-3	3	14.3	16.8	-2.43	15.7	17.8	-2.13
Andray Blatche	62	61	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.25	-9	6	-15	15.0	14.2	0.80	15.7	16.5	-0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.27,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.48,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.71,0.83,0.75,0.71,0.43,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 105, MIL 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.62,0.69,0.79,0.77,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.87,0.9,0.72,0.33,0.09,0	93.8%
IND 85, LAC 82	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.34,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.63,0.43,0.15,0	92.0%
HOU 100, GSW 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.28,0.22,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.37,0.64,0.71,0.66,0.81,0.64,0.22,0.09,0	89.6%