NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	111		Excitement	6.1 [574]		MVP	Mo Williams (CLE): +20.2%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.1 [717]		LVP	Anthony Parker (CLE): -7.9%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.20	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.14	0.06	-0.00	15	83%	0.32	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.09	0.01	20	59%	0.25	2	-0.04	18	89%	0.03
JJ Hickson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.08	0.00	9	75%	0.21	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Jamario Moon	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0.02	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	54%	0.02	0	0.00	10	60%	-0.04
Anderson Varejao	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Darnell Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Parker	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	7	21%	-0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.04	-0.01	21	57%	0.24	4	-0.09	21	71%	-0.02
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	-0.02	0.05	17	63%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.02	11	56%	0.04	1	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	53%	0.00	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.04
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	36.1	3.0	39.0	20.4	29.4	2.8	38.2	168.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +39.6%

MIA -1.1%

CLE +6.1%

CLE +5.0%

CLE +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIA	NBA	CLE	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	14.6	15.3	115.6	108.3	106.0
season	16.1	16.2		109.5	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.0		102.8	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	13.6	13.9	16.3	18.4	15.4
MIA	13.1	16.1	14.4	15.0	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Hickson	58	59	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.13	12	-5	17	16.6	13.7	2.87	15.7	12.8	2.93
LeBron James	80	80	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.24	6	1	5	15.0	17.6	-2.65	13.6	19.4	-5.75
Jamario Moon	62	60	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.23	4	3	1	15.0	16.3	-1.31	15.6	12.9	2.67
Mo Williams	78	77	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	5	-3	15.6	14.6	1.06	14.6	14.4	0.20
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	48	48	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	3	1	15.7	15.1	0.62	15.6	13.5	2.12
Shaquille O'Neal	42	43	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.01	9	-2	11	15.2	15.6	-0.36	14.0	15.1	-1.14
Anthony Parker	47	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.24	0	7	-7	16.9	14.0	2.81	13.9	15.3	-1.39
Daniel Gibson	31	32	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	1	5	13.8	16.2	-2.43	15.6	14.1	1.47
Danny Green	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	6	-5	8.5	15.6	-7.06	7.0	14.7	-7.74
Anderson Varejao	32	32	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.21	-8	15	-23	14.6	15.8	-1.23	12.7	15.5	-2.80

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daequan Cook	13	12	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-7	7	17.8	14.1	3.77	14.7	15.5	-0.76
Dorell Wright	30	28	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.04	-1	-6	5	17.0	13.5	3.56	14.7	15.7	-1.04
Joel Anthony	27	25	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-3	-1	16.3	13.9	2.38	15.7	15.3	0.36
Carlos Arroyo	27	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.01	-7	0	-7	16.6	13.8	2.74	15.8	15.3	0.54
Udonis Haslem	38	38	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.25	1	-8	9	15.7	13.9	1.82	15.7	15.2	0.53
Mario Chalmers	69	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.29	0	-7	7	13.8	16.6	-2.74	15.3	15.8	-0.54
Jermaine O'Neal	65	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.15	-6	-1	-5	14.2	15.5	-1.28	15.6	15.1	0.46
Dwyane Wade	79	80	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.29	-4	-3	-1	13.5	19.6	-6.15	15.1	16.7	-1.60
Michael Beasley	77	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	0	-7	14.1	16.6	-2.55	15.4	15.4	0.01
Quentin Richardson	55	56	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.21	-7	0	-7	13.6	15.9	-2.22	15.8	14.9	0.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.19,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 96, DAL 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.06,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.05,0	94.5%
NJN 93, WAS 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.26,0.15,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.1%
MIA 94, CLE 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.0%