NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	102		Excitement	3.2 [1131]		MVP	Mo Williams (CLE): +21.9%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	1.1 [684]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -7.1%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mo Williams	0.22	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.01	-0.08	20	70%	0.24	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.14	0.01	0.00	23	65%	0.18	4	-0.03	9	89%	0.01
Anthony Parker	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	3	150%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	8	45%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	5	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	-0.05	6	25%	-0.04	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.04	3	61%	0.07	2	-0.01	12	42%	-0.06
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	15	59%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.09	0.00	0.09	23	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	4	25%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	7	43%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	10	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	10	38%	-0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.07	7	56%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.7	35.2	19.6	26.1	2.8	29.2	142.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +32.2%

CLE +10.6%

CLE +9.0%

ORL -3.4%

CLE +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	ORL	NBA	CLE	ORL	NBA
this game	16.9	14.1	15.3	109.7	100.0	106.0
season	16.1	15.4		109.5	110.1
opponent	15.9	15.0		101.9	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	17.0	15.7	16.3	18.6	16.9
ORL	15.0	13.7	14.4	13.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	74	73	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.25	7	2	5	17.3	15.3	2.02	14.3	13.4	0.89
Mo Williams	81	81	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.30	4	5	-1	16.9	16.4	0.52	14.0	14.4	-0.37
JJ Hickson	46	46	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	-4	17	16.1	17.6	-1.47	13.4	14.7	-1.31
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	44	44	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.03	11	-2	13	16.6	17.1	-0.53	15.9	12.5	3.44
Daniel Gibson	47	47	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	6	-3	17.3	16.4	0.95	14.0	14.2	-0.11
Anthony Parker	56	55	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.22	0	9	-9	17.1	16.6	0.50	13.7	14.6	-0.90
Anderson Varejao	50	51	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.19	0	9	-9	16.4	17.4	-0.98	13.3	15.1	-1.78
Shaquille O'Neal	37	37	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.12	2	7	-5	17.6	16.4	1.29	14.3	14.0	0.33
Jamario Moon	30	31	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.00	5	4	1	15.9	17.3	-1.43	14.0	14.1	-0.15

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Williams	27	27	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-6	3	13.1	14.5	-1.44	15.8	17.3	-1.49
Matt Barnes	51	52	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.29	5	-14	19	14.2	14.0	0.18	17.5	16.0	1.47
JJ Redick	37	37	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-12	15	14.1	14.1	0.06	17.6	16.4	1.20
Brandon Bass	42	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.06	-11	2	-13	13.5	14.6	-1.18	16.3	17.3	-0.98
Dwight Howard	58	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-9	9	14.7	13.1	1.62	17.6	15.6	1.96
Vince Carter	67	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.28	-1	-8	7	13.9	14.5	-0.56	17.2	16.0	1.14
Mickael Pietrus	48	48	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.02	-13	4	-17	13.5	14.7	-1.19	15.7	18.1	-2.40
Jameer Nelson	66	66	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.22	-6	-3	-3	14.5	13.1	1.44	17.3	15.8	1.49
Marcin Gortat	69	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.11	-19	10	-29	14.4	13.1	1.37	16.2	18.5	-2.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.24,0.18,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 95, LAC 64	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
LAC 126, MEM 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.22,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
DAL 119, MIN 95	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.25,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%