NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	98		Excitement	7.9 [233]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +28.5%
Sacramento Kings	101		Comeback	1.4 [555]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -22.7%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.28	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.23,0.28	0.09	0.19	-0.01	23	58%	0.41	4	-0.13	18	100%	0.15
James Harden	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.04	-0.02	7	64%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.01	10	52%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.03
Etan Thomas	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Ollie	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.01	0.08	-0.07	0.01	12	59%	0.04	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.00
Nick Collison	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	7	14%	-0.15	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.23	-0.10	-0.12	0.01	13	30%	-0.19	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.09	-0.00	12	59%	0.17	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.06	-0.01	5	62%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	10	55%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.07	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Donte Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Ime Udoka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.04	-0.02	16	48%	0.09	5	-0.11	10	100%	0.08
Jason Thompson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	15	52%	0.07	5	-0.13	10	90%	0.05
Beno Udrih	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	11	50%	0.02	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.3	29.6	16.0	30.2	2.5	41.4	149.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +21.3%

OKC -2.0%

SAC +30.6%

OKC -7.8%

SAC +7.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAC	NBA	OKC	SAC	NBA
this game	13.9	14.9	15.3	98.0	101.0	106.0
season	15.0	15.2		106.2	103.7
opponent	15.0	15.5		108.5	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.2	16.1	12.6	12.8	13.9
SAC	13.5	13.9	14.6	17.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	5	5	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.00	7	-10	17	12.6	14.0	-1.36	13.0	15.0	-2.01
Etan Thomas	30	29	0.20	-0.70	0.89	-0.07	9	-12	21	15.2	13.3	1.87	16.0	14.5	1.54
James Harden	39	40	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.10	1	-4	5	14.4	13.6	0.81	15.3	14.6	0.69
Russell Westbrook	76	78	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.36	5	-8	13	13.4	15.5	-2.17	15.1	14.3	0.76
Thabo Sefolosha	75	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.32	2	-5	7	13.9	13.8	0.07	13.8	17.7	-3.85
Kevin Ollie	24	22	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	5	-13	15.5	13.4	2.17	14.3	15.1	-0.76
Nick Collison	33	33	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	11	-25	15.3	13.2	2.11	14.5	15.1	-0.68
Jeff Green	72	73	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	1	-5	13.7	14.3	-0.55	15.6	13.0	2.62
Nenad Krstic	66	66	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.34	-6	3	-9	13.3	15.0	-1.73	14.6	15.5	-0.85
Kevin Durant	80	82	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.41	-7	4	-11	13.3	16.4	-3.14	15.2	13.7	1.45

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andres Nocioni	76	74	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.39	11	-8	19	15.2	13.8	1.42	13.4	15.2	-1.76
Jason Thompson	81	81	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.43	6	-3	9	15.2	13.7	1.51	14.0	13.5	0.51
Beno Udrih	80	81	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	1	1	15.6	12.2	3.39	13.9	13.7	0.19
Tyreke Evans	72	73	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.21	5	-2	7	14.3	16.5	-2.21	14.0	13.6	0.46
Kenny Thomas	22	22	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	-3	9	14.5	15.0	-0.53	15.2	13.5	1.66
Omri Casspi	49	50	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.35	-5	8	-13	15.4	14.4	1.02	13.5	14.2	-0.70
Ime Udoka	27	26	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.15	-2	5	-7	12.2	15.9	-3.68	13.3	14.1	-0.73
Spencer Hawes	66	67	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.11	-5	8	-13	15.1	14.5	0.62	13.9	13.9	-0.07
Donte Greene	27	26	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	-0.03	-3	6	-9	14.3	15.1	-0.84	14.6	13.6	0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.63,0.67,0.6,0.74,0.85,0.82,0.72,0.53,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.84,0.83,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 86, WAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.89,0.96,1	92.6%
LAC 112, GSW 122	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.53,0.69,0.8,0.69,0.61,0.89,0.99,1,1	92.3%
MIA 92, CHI 99	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.41,0.56,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.66,0.8,0.84,0.89,1,1	91.5%