NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	93		Excitement	4.8 [835]		MVP	Rudy Fernandez (POR): +11.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	79		Comeback	1.5 [937]		LVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): -22.0%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Fernandez	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.00	3	100%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Greg Oden	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	10	61%	0.10	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	-0.00	-0.01	12	62%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	0.01	0.05	9	78%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	11	67%	0.11	3	-0.08	8	75%	-0.02
Martell Webster	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Joel Przybilla	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	37%	-0.04	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.00	9	20%	-0.09	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	0.01	0.02	9	65%	0.10	0	0.00	13	77%	0.01
Hamed Haddadi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Hasheem Thabeet	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.02	18	46%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	14	37%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.03	0.03	10	35%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.01	0.00	6	21%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.08	-0.01	11	41%	-0.04	6	-0.18	7	57%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.4	36.1	15.0	31.0	2.6	30.5	144.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +55.6%

POR +1.6%

MEM -11.6%

POR +7.2%

MEM -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MEM	NBA	POR	MEM	NBA
this game	16.5	16.3	15.3	104.5	90.8	106.0
season	16.7	15.4		108.8	106.8
opponent	15.0	15.6		108.4	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.5	15.9	15.5	18.0	16.5
MEM	16.2	16.1	18.0	14.7	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	66	67	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.05	18	-4	22	17.4	13.8	3.57	16.6	15.2	1.37
Andre Miller	57	57	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.04	18	-4	22	16.9	15.8	1.08	16.3	16.1	0.18
Brandon Roy	70	67	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.06	16	-2	18	16.8	15.3	1.54	16.9	14.1	2.80
Greg Oden	41	41	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.04	16	-2	18	17.1	15.9	1.25	16.4	16.1	0.26
Steve Blake	57	55	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.05	16	-2	18	17.2	15.2	1.91	16.3	16.2	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	35	34	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.12	2	12	-10	15.5	17.1	-1.53	17.2	15.6	1.56
Travis Outlaw	44	42	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.05	1	13	-12	15.3	17.6	-2.28	15.6	16.8	-1.23
Joel Przybilla	35	33	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.07	-4	18	-22	15.5	17.1	-1.67	15.5	16.7	-1.14
Martell Webster	32	31	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.09	-5	19	-24	15.7	16.9	-1.27	15.2	16.9	-1.70
Jerryd Bayless	8	8	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.08	-8	22	-30	13.0	16.8	-3.81	13.5	16.5	-3.03

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Young	34	34	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.02	2	-16	18	15.8	16.6	-0.80	15.6	17.0	-1.48
Steven Hunter	3	2	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-16	18	19.0	16.2	2.85	17.0	16.5	0.54
Hasheem Thabeet	4	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-14	14	17.5	16.2	1.31	11.7	16.6	-4.97
Marcus Williams	33	35	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.13	4	-18	22	15.8	16.5	-0.75	14.5	17.7	-3.18
Hamed Haddadi	12	14	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-12	10	13.2	16.7	-3.58	15.2	16.7	-1.49
DeMarre Carroll	22	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	-7	0	16.3	16.2	0.09	15.9	16.7	-0.81
Zach Randolph	63	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.12	-8	-6	-2	16.0	16.8	-0.74	16.4	16.6	-0.23
Marc Gasol	67	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	-3	-8	16.7	14.8	1.82	17.2	14.0	3.17
Mike Conley	54	54	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.04	-18	4	-22	16.5	15.8	0.75	17.7	14.5	3.18
O.J. Mayo	69	72	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.06	-16	2	-18	16.7	14.7	2.00	16.8	15.1	1.75
Rudy Gay	74	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.07	-16	2	-18	16.2	16.6	-0.43	16.5	16.1	0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.35,0.28,0.19,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 87, GSW 69	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.8%
BKN 98, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
SAS 87, CHI 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.13,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%